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A core challenge in causal inference is how to extrapolate long term effects, of possibly continuous actions, from short term experimental data. It arises in artificial intelligence: the long term consequences of continuous actions may be…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-01-03 Rahul Singh , Hannah Zhou

We propose novel estimators for categorical and continuous treatments by using an optimal covariate balancing strategy for inverse probability weighting. The resulting estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-08 Seong-ho Lee , Yanyuan Ma , Xavier de Luna

Recent work has focused on nonparametric estimation of conditional treatment effects, but inference has remained relatively unexplored. We propose a class of nonparametric tests for both quantitative and qualitative treatment effect…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-07 Oliver Dukes , Mats J. Stensrud , Riccardo Brioschi , Aaron Hudson

Estimating the effect of a treatment on a given outcome, conditioned on a vector of covariates, is central in many applications. However, learning the impact of a treatment on a continuous temporal response, when the covariates suffer…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-06-11 Guangyi Zhang , Reza Ashrafi , Anne Juuti , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen

There are limited options to estimate the treatment effects of variables which are continuous and measured at multiple time points, particularly if the true dose-response curve should be estimated as closely as possible. However, these…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-11 Michael Schomaker , Helen McIlleron , Paolo Denti , Iván Díaz

Researchers commonly use difference-in-differences (DiD) designs to evaluate public policy interventions. While methods exist for estimating effects in the context of binary interventions, policies often result in varied exposures across…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-07 Gary Hettinger , Youjin Lee , Nandita Mitra

Instrumental variable methods are widely used to address unmeasured confounding, yet much of the existing literature has focused on the binary instrument setting. Extensions to continuous instruments often impose strong parametric…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-12 Zhenghao Zeng , Alexander W. Levis , JungHo Lee , Edward H. Kennedy , Luke Keele

Motivated by a study about prompt coronary angiography in myocardial infarction, we propose a method to estimate the causal effect of a treatment in two-arm experimental studies with possible non-compliance in both treatment and control…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-10-26 F. Bartolucci , A. Farcomeni

We propose a new method to estimate causal effects from nonexperimental data. Each pair of sample units is first associated with a stochastic 'treatment' - differences in factors between units - and an effect - a resultant outcome…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-08 Andre F. Ribeiro , Frank Neffke , Ricardo Hausmann

Standard causal inference characterizes treatment effect through averages, but the counterfactual distributions could be different in not only the central tendency but also spread and shape. To provide a comprehensive evaluation of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-04 Steven G. Xu , Shu Yang , Brian J. Reich

Continuous treatments have posed a significant challenge for causal inference, both in the formulation and identification of scientifically meaningful effects and in their robust estimation. Traditionally, focus has been placed on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-29 Nima S. Hejazi , David Benkeser , Iván Díaz , Mark J. van der Laan

In observational studies, causal inference relies on several key identifying assumptions. One identifiability condition is the positivity assumption, which requires the probability of treatment be bounded away from 0 and 1. That is, for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-21 Yaqian Zhu , Nandita Mitra , Jason Roy

Causal mediation analysis has historically been limited in two important ways: (i) a focus has traditionally been placed on binary treatments and static interventions, and (ii) direct and indirect effect decompositions have been pursued…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-01-13 Nima S. Hejazi , Kara E. Rudolph , Mark J. van der Laan , Iván Díaz

This paper considers the practically important case of nonparametrically estimating heterogeneous average treatment effects that vary with a limited number of discrete and continuous covariates in a selection-on-observables framework where…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2019-08-26 Michael Zimmert , Michael Lechner

In many scientific studies, it is of interest to determine whether an exposure has a causal effect on an outcome. In observational studies, this is a challenging task due to the presence of confounding variables that affect both the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-10-07 Ted Westling

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-15 Christopher Stith , Medha Barath , Vahid Balazadeh , Jesse C. Cresswell , Rahul G. Krishnan

Causal inference in observational studies can be challenging when confounders are subject to missingness. Generally, the identification of causal effects is not guaranteed even under restrictive parametric model assumptions when confounders…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-03-23 Jian Sun , Bo Fu

We show that causal effects can be identified when there is bunching in the distribution of a continuous treatment variable, without imposing any parametric assumptions. This yields a new nonparametric method for overcoming selection bias…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-07-08 Carolina Caetano , Gregorio Caetano , Leonard Goff , Eric Nielsen

An essential goal of program evaluation and scientific research is the investigation of causal mechanisms. Over the past several decades, causal mediation analysis has been used in medical and social sciences to decompose the treatment…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-01-15 K. C. G. Chan , K. Imai , S. C. P. Yam , Z. Zhang

Estimating causal effects is particularly challenging when outcomes arise in complex, non-Euclidean spaces, where conventional methods often fail to capture meaningful structural variation. We develop a framework for topological causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-04 Kwangho Kim , Hajin Lee