相关论文: Accounting for selection biases in population anal…

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

When interpreting A/B tests, we typically focus only on the statistically significant results and take them by face value. This practice, termed post-selection inference in the statistical literature, may negatively affect both point…

Big data presents potential but unresolved value as a source for analysis and inference. However,selection bias, present in many of these datasets, needs to be accounted for so that appropriate inferences can be made on the target…

Here we focus on the description of the mechanisms behind the process of information aggregation and decision making, a basic step to understand emergent phenomena in society, such as trends, information spreading or the wisdom of crowds.…

In many applications, different populations are compared using data that are sampled in a biased manner. Under sampling biases, standard methods that estimate the difference between the population means yield unreliable inferences. Here we…

In analyzing big data for finite population inference, it is critical to adjust for the selection bias in the big data. In this paper, we propose two methods of reducing the selection bias associated with the big data sample. The first…

We propose a novel definition of selection bias in analytic epidemiology using potential outcomes. This definition captures selection bias under both the structural approach (where conditioning on selection into the study opens a noncausal…

Many policies allocate harms or benefits that are uncertain in nature: they produce distributions over the population in which individuals have different probabilities of incurring harm or benefit. Comparing different policies thus involves…

Nonprobability (convenience) samples are increasingly sought to reduce the estimation variance for one or more population variables of interest that are estimated using a randomized survey (reference) sample by increasing the effective…

Model selection aims to identify a sufficiently well performing model that is possibly simpler than the most complex model among a pool of candidates. However, the decision-making process itself can inadvertently introduce non-negligible…

Causal inference is crucial for understanding the true impact of interventions, policies, or actions, enabling informed decision-making and providing insights into the underlying mechanisms that shape our world. In this paper, we establish…

Poisson random effect models with a shared random effect have been widely used in actuarial science for analyzing the number of claims. In particular, the random effect is a key factor in a posteriori risk classification. However, the…

It is generally believed that bias is minimized in well-controlled randomized clinical trials. However, bias can arise in active controlled noninferiority trials because the inference relies on a previously estimated effect size obtained…

This paper compares three approaches to the problem of selecting among probability models to fit data (1) use of statistical criteria such as Akaike's information criterion and Schwarz's "Bayesian information criterion," (2) maximization of…

Nonprobability (convenience) samples are increasingly sought to stabilize estimations for one or more population variables of interest that are performed using a randomized survey (reference) sample by increasing the effective sample size.…

Bayesian analysis is increasingly popular for use in social science and other application areas where the data are observations from an informative sample. An informative sampling design leads to inclusion probabilities that are correlated…

Recent decades have seen an interest in prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been used ubiquitously. Sampling from or approximating the posterior predictive distribution in a Bayesian model allows one to make inferential…

This paper describes a Bayesian method for learning causal networks using samples that were selected in a non-random manner from a population of interest. Examples of data obtained by non-random sampling include convenience samples and…

How should social scientists understand and communicate the uncertainty of statistically estimated causal effects? I propose we utilize the posterior distribution of a causal effect and present the probability of the effect being greater…

Estimating the causal effect of a treatment or health policy with observational data can be challenging due to an imbalance of and a lack of overlap between treated and control covariate distributions. In the presence of limited overlap,…