相关论文: Conformal Risk Control for Ordinal Classification

Designing provably safe control is a core problem in trustworthy autonomy. However, most prior work in this regard assumes either that the system dynamics are known or deterministic, or that the state and action space are finite,…

The study of a machine learning problem is in many ways is difficult to separate from the study of the loss function being used. One avenue of inquiry has been to look at these loss functions in terms of their properties as scoring rules…

This paper extends the class of ordinal regression models with a structured interpretation of the problem by applying a novel treatment of encoded labels. The net effect of this is to transform the underlying problem from an ordinal…

In recent times, deep neural networks achieved outstanding predictive performance on various classification and pattern recognition tasks. However, many real-world prediction problems have ordinal response variables, and this ordering…

To evaluate a classification algorithm, it is common practice to plot the ROC curve using test data. However, the inherent randomness in the test data can undermine our confidence in the conclusions drawn from the ROC curve, necessitating…

Calibrating blackbox machine learning models to achieve risk control is crucial to ensure reliable decision-making. A rich line of literature has been studying how to calibrate a model so that its predictions satisfy explicit finite-sample…

Stochastic optimization problems often involve the expectation in its objective. When risk is incorporated in the problem description as well, then risk measures have to be involved in addition to quantify the acceptable risk, often in the…

Discrimination and calibration represent two important properties of survival analysis, with the former assessing the model's ability to accurately rank subjects and the latter evaluating the alignment of predicted outcomes with actual…

We address the statistical estimation of composite functionals which may be nonlinear in the probability measure. Our study is motivated by the need to estimate coherent measures of risk, which become increasingly popular in finance,…

Generative classifiers are constructed on the basis of a joint probability distribution and are typically learned using closed-form procedures that rely on data statistics and maximize scores related to data fitting. However, these scores…

Conformal prediction has emerged as a widely used framework for constructing valid prediction sets in classification and regression tasks. In this work, we extend the split conformal prediction framework to hierarchical classification,…

Prescriptive process monitoring methods seek to improve the performance of a process by selectively triggering interventions at runtime (e.g., offering a discount to a customer) to increase the probability of a desired case outcome (e.g., a…

Image ordinal estimation is to predict the ordinal label of a given image, which can be categorized as an ordinal regression problem. Recent methods formulate an ordinal regression problem as a series of binary classification problems. Such…

This paper addresses the problem of identifying and estimating the causal effect of a treatment in the presence of unmeasured confounding and various types of right-censoring. Examples of these censoring mechanisms are administrative…

We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating…

Threshold methods are popular for ordinal regression problems, which are classification problems for data with a natural ordinal relation. They learn a one-dimensional transformation (1DT) of observations of the explanatory variable, and…

Explicit finite-sample statistical guarantees on model performance are an important ingredient in responsible machine learning. Previous work has focused mainly on bounding either the expected loss of a predictor or the probability that an…

Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic…

This paper focuses on the problem of detecting and reacting to changes in the distribution of a sensorimotor controller's observables. The key idea is the design of switching policies that can take conformal quantiles as input, which we…

This paper presents a conformal prediction method for classification in highly imbalanced and open-set settings, where there are many possible classes and not all may be represented in the data. Existing approaches require a finite, known…