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Uncertainty quantification is a key pillar of trustworthy machine learning. It enables safe reactions under unsafe inputs, like predicting only when the machine learning model detects sufficient evidence, discarding anomalous data, or…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-08-27 Michael Kirchhof

We evaluate the uncertainty quality in neural networks using anomaly detection. We extract uncertainty measures (e.g. entropy) from the predictions of candidate models, use those measures as features for an anomaly detector, and gauge how…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-12-26 Ramon Oliveira , Pedro Tabacof , Eduardo Valle

Parameters of the mathematical model describing many practical dynamical systems are prone to vary due to aging or renewal, wear and tear, as well as changes in environmental or service conditions. These variabilities will adversely affect…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2022-07-13 Hang Geng , Mulugeta A. Haile , Huazhen Fang

In autonomous driving, accurate motion prediction is crucial for safe and efficient motion planning. To ensure safety, planners require reliable uncertainty estimates of the predicted behavior of surrounding agents, yet this aspect has…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2025-03-03 Aron Distelzweig , Andreas Look , Eitan Kosman , Faris Janjoš , Jörg Wagner , Abhinav Valada

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying…

Accurate reconstruction of environmental scalar fields from sparse onboard observations is essential for autonomous vehicles engaged in aquatic monitoring. Beyond point estimates, principled uncertainty quantification is critical for active…

The use of deep learning for medical imaging has seen tremendous growth in the research community. One reason for the slow uptake of these systems in the clinical setting is that they are complex, opaque and tend to fail silently. Outside…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2018-07-03 Terrance DeVries , Graham W. Taylor

Reliable uncertainty quantification in trajectory prediction is crucial for safety-critical autonomous driving systems, yet existing deep learning predictors lack uncertainty-aware frameworks adaptable to heterogeneous real-world scenarios.…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2025-12-08 Yiming Shu , Jiahui Xu , Linghuan Kong , Fangni Zhang , Guodong Yin , Chen Sun

Accurate and efficient uncertainty estimation is crucial to build reliable Machine Learning (ML) models capable to provide calibrated uncertainty estimates, generalize and detect Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) datasets. To this end,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-03-30 Bertrand Charpentier , Chenxiang Zhang , Stephan Günnemann

Safety evaluation of self-driving technologies has been extensively studied. One recent approach uses Monte Carlo based evaluation to estimate the occurrence probabilities of safety-critical events as safety measures. These Monte Carlo…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-07-19 Zhiyuan Huang , Mansur Arief , Henry Lam , Ding Zhao

It is known that neural networks have the problem of being over-confident when directly using the output label distribution to generate uncertainty measures. Existing methods mainly resolve this issue by retraining the entire model to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-12-15 Maohao Shen , Yuheng Bu , Prasanna Sattigeri , Soumya Ghosh , Subhro Das , Gregory Wornell

Numerous studies have focused on learning and understanding the dynamics of physical systems from video data, such as spatial intelligence. Artificial intelligence requires quantitative assessments of the uncertainty of the model to ensure…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-18 Aoming Liang , Qi Liu , Lei Xu , Fahad Sohrab , Weicheng Cui , Changhui Song , Moncef Gabbouj

Measuring uncertainty is a promising technique for detecting adversarial examples, crafted inputs on which the model predicts an incorrect class with high confidence. But many measures of uncertainty exist, including predictive en- tropy…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-03-26 Lewis Smith , Yarin Gal

In medical imaging, anomaly detection is a vital element of healthcare diagnostics, especially for neurological conditions which can be life-threatening. Conventional deterministic methods often fall short when it comes to capturing the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-23 Dip Roy

An accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for safe and efficient autonomous driving in complex traffic environments. In recent years, artificial intelligence has shown strong capabilities in improving prediction accuracy. However, its…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2023-01-12 Wenbo Shao , Yanchao Xu , Jun Li , Chen Lv , Weida Wang , Hong Wang

The evolution of Internet and its related communication technologies have consistently increased the risk of cyber-attacks. In this context, a crucial role is played by Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs), which are security devices designed…

密码学与安全 · 计算机科学 2024-04-10 Jacopo Talpini , Fabio Sartori , Marco Savi

When recording the movement of individual animals, cells or molecules one will often observe changes in their diffusive behaviour at certain points in time along their trajectory. In order to capture the different diffusive modes assembled…

统计力学 · 物理学 2024-10-21 Henrik Seckler , Ralf Metzler

With increasing computational demand, Neural-Network (NN) based models are being developed as pre-trained surrogates for different thermohydraulics phenomena. An area where this approach has shown promise is in developing higher-fidelity…

流体动力学 · 物理学 2024-12-13 Cody Grogan , Som Dutta , Mauricio Tano , Somayajulu L. N. Dhulipala , Izabela Gutowska

Standard deep learning methods, such as Ensemble Models, Bayesian Neural Networks and Quantile Regression Models provide estimates to prediction uncertainties for data-driven deep learning models. However, they can be limited in their…

The uncertainty quantification of prediction models (e.g., neural networks) is crucial for their adoption in many robotics applications. This is arguably as important as making accurate predictions, especially for safety-critical…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2024-04-09 Junan Chen , Josephine Monica , Wei-Lun Chao , Mark Campbell