相关论文: Exact Sampling of Gibbs Measures with Estimated Lo…

Estimating the predictive uncertainty of a Bayesian learning model is critical in various decision-making problems, e.g., reinforcement learning, detecting adversarial attack, self-driving car. As the model posterior is almost always…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods such as Gibbs sampling are finding widespread use in applied statistics and machine learning. These often lead to difficult computational problems, which are increasingly being solved on parallel and…

We propose a simple approach that provides accurate uncertainty quantification for Bayesian inference in misspecified or approximate models, and for generalized (Gibbs) posteriors. While existing solutions in this context are based on…

Gibbs sampling is a Markov chain Monte Carlo method that is often used for learning and inference on graphical models. Minibatching, in which a small random subset of the graph is used at each iteration, can help make Gibbs sampling scale…

There is a growing interest in learning how the distribution of a response variable changes with a set of predictors. Bayesian nonparametric dependent mixture models provide a flexible approach to address this goal. However, several…

We characterise the convergence of the Gibbs sampler which samples from the joint posterior distribution of parameters and missing data in hierarchical linear models with arbitrary symmetric error distributions. We show that the convergence…

We construct a new class of efficient Monte Carlo methods based on continuous-time piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) suitable for inference in high dimensional sparse models, i.e. models for which there is prior knowledge…

We propose a statistical benchmark for diffusion posterior sampling (DPS) algorithms for Bayesian linear inverse problems. The benchmark synthesizes signals from sparse L\'evy-process priors whose posteriors admit efficient Gibbs methods.…

We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the…

Bayesian analyses combine information represented by different terms in a joint Bayesian model. When one or more of the terms is misspecified, it can be helpful to restrict the use of information from suspect model components to modify…

Novel Monte Carlo methods to generate samples from a target distribution, such as a posterior from a Bayesian analysis, have rapidly expanded in the past decade. Algorithms based on Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs),…

We study Bayesian methods for large-scale linear inverse problems, focusing on the challenging task of hyperparameter estimation. Typical hierarchical Bayesian formulations that follow a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach are possible for…

This paper proposes Bayesian mosaic, a parallelizable composite posterior, for scalable Bayesian inference on a broad class of multivariate discrete data models. Sampling is embarrassingly parallel since Bayesian mosaic is a multiplication…

This paper addresses the mapping problem. Using a conjugate prior form, we derive the exact theoretical batch multi-object posterior density of the map given a set of measurements. The landmarks in the map are modeled as extended objects,…

This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to generate approximate posterior samples in retrospective multiple changepoint problems where the number of changes is not known in advance. The method uses conjugate models whereby the…

A large number of statistical models are "doubly-intractable": the likelihood normalising term, which is a function of the model parameters, is intractable, as well as the marginal likelihood (model evidence). This means that standard…

Gaussian graphical models are widely used to infer dependence structures. Bayesian methods are appealing to quantify uncertainty associated with structural learning, i.e., the plausibility of conditional independence statements given the…

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

Diffusion models have excellent capacity to model complex distributions of natural data, which has made them a popular and effective choice for posterior sampling in imaging inverse problems. Existing methods can incorporate any measurement…

An important aspect of Bayesian model selection is how to deal with huge model spaces, since exhaustive enumeration of all the models entertained is unfeasible and inferences have to be based on the very small proportion of models visited.…