相关论文: Prior Effective Sample Size When Borrowing on the …

We present a bayesassurance R package that computes the Bayesian assurance under various settings characterized by different assumptions and objectives. The package offers a constructive set of simulation-based functions suitable for…

This article introduces a new method for eliciting prior distributions from experts. The method models an expert decision-making process to infer a prior probability distribution for a rare event $A$. More specifically, assuming there…

In the context of the expected-posterior prior (EPP) approach to Bayesian variable selection in linear models, we combine ideas from power-prior and unit-information-prior methodologies to simultaneously produce a minimally-informative…

Generalizing causal knowledge across diverse environments is challenging, especially when estimates from large-scale datasets must be applied to smaller or systematically different contexts, where external validity is critical. Model-based…

What is the best way to exploit extra data -- be it unlabeled data from the same task, or labeled data from a related task -- to learn a given task? This paper formalizes the question using the theory of reference priors. Reference priors…

The contour map of estimation error of Expected Shortfall (ES) is constructed. It allows one to quantitatively determine the sample size (the length of the time series) required by the optimization under ES of large institutional portfolios…

Model-based deep reinforcement learning has achieved success in various domains that require high sample efficiencies, such as Go and robotics. However, there are some remaining issues, such as planning efficient explorations to learn more…

In analyses with severe data-limitations, augmenting the target dataset with information from ancillary datasets in the application domain, called source datasets, can lead to significantly improved statistical procedures. However, existing…

Significant treatment effects are often emphasized when interpreting and summarizing empirical findings in studies that estimate multiple, possibly many, treatment effects. Under this kind of selective reporting, conventional treatment…

Batched synthesis and testing of molecular designs is the key bottleneck of drug development. There has been great interest in leveraging biomolecular foundation models as surrogates to accelerate this process. In this work, we show how to…

The European Medicines Agency has in recent years allowed licensing of new pharmaceuticals at an earlier stage in the clinical trial process. When trial evidence is obtained at an early stage, the events of interest, such as disease…

Prior information is often incorporated informally when planning a clinical trial. Here, we present an approach on how to incorporate prior information, such as data from historical clinical trials, into the nuisance parameter based sample…

We study the problem of identifying change points in high-dimensional generalized linear models, and propose an approach based on sample-weighted empirical risk minimization. Our method, Weighted ERM, encodes priors on the change points via…

In situations where it is difficult to enroll patients in randomized controlled trials, external data can improve efficiency and feasibility. In such cases, adaptive trial designs could be used to decrease enrollment in the control arm of…

In this work, we address the problem of solving a series of underdetermined linear inverse problems subject to a sparsity constraint. We generalize the spike-and-slab prior distribution to encode a priori correlation of the support of the…

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring…

Neural demyelination and brain damage accumulated in white matter appear as hyperintense areas on T2-weighted MRI scans in the form of lesions. Modeling binary images at the population level, where each voxel represents the existence of a…

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

Sample selection is a prevalent approach in learning with noisy labels, aiming to identify confident samples for training. Although existing sample selection methods have achieved decent results by reducing the noise rate of the selected…

The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the…