相关论文: Variational Inference for Uncertainty Quantificati…

Suppose that we wish to estimate a vector $\mathbf{x}$ from a set of binary paired comparisons of the form "$\mathbf{x}$ is closer to $\mathbf{p}$ than to $\mathbf{q}$" for various choices of vectors $\mathbf{p}$ and $\mathbf{q}$. The…

Variational inference (VI) has emerged as a popular method for approximate inference for high-dimensional Bayesian models. In this paper, we propose a novel VI method that extends the naive mean field via entropic regularization, referred…

This paper examines the biases and performance of several uncertain inference systems: Mycin, a variant of Mycin. and a simplified version of probability using conditional independence assumptions. We present axiomatic arguments for using…

Transformation-based methods have been an attractive approach in non-parametric inference for problems such as unconditional and conditional density estimation due to their unique hierarchical structure that models the data as flexible…

Invariant Causal Prediction (Peters et al., 2016) is a technique for out-of-distribution generalization which assumes that some aspects of the data distribution vary across the training set but that the underlying causal mechanisms remain…

Linear mixed-effects models are widely used in analyzing repeated measures data, including clustered and longitudinal data, where inferences of both fixed effects and variance components are of importance. Unlike the fixed effect inference…

We revisit the replica method for analyzing inference and learning in parametric models, considering situations where the data-generating distribution is unknown or analytically intractable. Instead of assuming idealized distributions to…

For predictive modeling relying on Bayesian inversion, fully independent, or ``mean-field'', Gaussian distributions are often used as approximate probability density functions in variational inference since the number of variational…

Based on the q-exponential distribution which has been observed in more and more physical systems, the varentropy method is used to derive the uncertainty measure of such an abnormal distribution function. The uncertainty measure obtained…

We present a simple case study, demonstrating that Variational Information Bottleneck (VIB) can improve a network's classification calibration as well as its ability to detect out-of-distribution data. Without explicitly being designed to…

We provide a general solution to a fundamental open problem in Bayesian inference, namely poor uncertainty quantification, from a frequency standpoint, of Bayesian methods in misspecified models. While existing solutions are based on…

We develop flexible methods of deriving variational inference for models with complex latent variable structure. By splitting the variables in these models into "global" parameters and "local" latent variables, we define a class of…

The Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) framework aims to learn invariant features from a set of environments for solving the out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization problem. The underlying assumption is that the causal components of the…

For distributions $\mathbb{P}$ and $\mathbb{Q}$ with different supports or undefined densities, the divergence $\textrm{D}(\mathbb{P}||\mathbb{Q})$ may not exist. We define a Spread Divergence $\tilde{\textrm{D}}(\mathbb{P}||\mathbb{Q})$ on…

We study the general problem of testing whether an unknown distribution belongs to a specified family of distributions. More specifically, given a distribution family $\mathcal{P}$ and sample access to an unknown discrete distribution…

We provide theoretical and empirical evidence for a type of asymmetry between causes and effects that is present when these are related via linear models contaminated with additive non-Gaussian noise. Assuming that the causes and the…

We give a general unified method that can be used for $L_1$ {\em closeness testing} of a wide range of univariate structured distribution families. More specifically, we design a sample optimal and computationally efficient algorithm for…

Variational inference (VI) is a widely used framework in Bayesian estimation. For most of the non-Gaussian statistical models, it is infeasible to find an analytically tractable solution to estimate the posterior distributions of the…

Semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) enriches the expressiveness of variational families by utilizing a kernel and a mixing distribution to hierarchically define the variational distribution. Existing SIVI methods parameterize the…

Explainability and uncertainty quantification are key to trustable artificial intelligence. However, the reasoning behind uncertainty estimates is generally left unexplained. Identifying the drivers of uncertainty complements explanations…