相关论文: Predicting Winning Lottery Numbers

In this paper we present a novel approach to optimise tactical and strategic decision making in football (soccer). We model the game of football as a multi-stage game which is made up from a Bayesian game to model the pre-match decisions…

Statistical model checking estimates probabilities and expectations of interest in probabilistic system models by using random simulations. Its results come with statistical guarantees. However, many tools use unsound statistical methods…

The Lottery Ticket hypothesis proposes that ideal, sparse subnetworks, called lottery tickets, exist in untrained dense neural networks. The Early Bird hypothesis proposes an efficient algorithm to find these winning lottery tickets in…

In the contemporary film industry, accurately predicting a movie's earnings is paramount for maximizing profitability. This project aims to develop a machine learning model for predicting movie earnings based on input features like the…

Coherent sets of desirable gamble sets is used as a model for representing an agents opinions and choice preferences under uncertainty. In this paper we provide some results about the axioms required for coherence and the natural extension…

In this paper, we provide an explicit probability distribution for classification purposes. It is derived from the Bayesian nonparametric mixture of Dirichlet process model, but with suitable modifications which remove unsuitable aspects of…

Stochastic billiards can be used for approximate sampling from the boundary of a bounded convex set through the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) paradigm. This paper studies how many steps of the underlying Markov chain are required to get…

The large majority of inferences drawn in empirical political research follow from model-based associations (e.g. regression). Here, we articulate the benefits of predictive modeling as a complement to this approach. Predictive models aim…

Consider a 4-player version of Matching Pennies where a team of three players competes against the Devil. Each player simultaneously says "Heads" or "Tails". The team wins if all four choices match; otherwise the Devil wins. If all team…

We study the relationship between social media output and National Football League (NFL) games, using a dataset containing messages from Twitter and NFL game statistics. Specifically, we consider tweets pertaining to specific teams and…

In district-based multi-party elections, electors cast votes in their respective districts. In each district, the party with maximum votes wins the corresponding seat in the governing body. Election Surveys try to predict the election…

The recent popularity of Wordle has revived interest in guessing games. We develop a general method for finding optimal strategies for guessing games while avoiding an exhaustive search. Our main contributions are several theorems that…

Problem definition. In retailing, discrete choice models (DCMs) are commonly used to capture the choice behavior of customers when offered an assortment of products. When estimating DCMs using transaction data, flexible models (such as…

Consider the following game between a random player R and a deterministic player D. There is a pile of n elements at the beginning. The rules for playing are as follows: In each turn of R, if the pile contains exactly m elements, R removes…

We are often faced with the non-trivial task of designing incentive mechanisms in the era of Web3. As history has shown, many Web3 services failed mostly due to the lack of a rigorous incentive mechanism design based on token economics.…

An accumulator is a bet that presents a rather unique payout structure, in that it combines multiple bets into a wager that can generate a total payout given by the multiplication of the individual odds of its parts. These potentially…

A tournament organizer must select one of $n$ possible teams as the winner of a competition after observing all $\binom{n}{2}$ matches between them. The organizer would like to find a tournament rule that simultaneously satisfies the…

We use a probabilistic method to produce some combinatorial inequalities by considering pattern containment in permutations and words.

This paper describes Picky, a probabilistic agenda-based chart parsing algorithm which uses a technique called {\em probabilistic prediction} to predict which grammar rules are likely to lead to an acceptable parse of the input. Using a…

In this paper we examine problems motivated by on-line financial problems and stochastic games. In particular, we consider a sequence of entirely arbitrary distinct values arriving in random order, and must devise strategies for selecting…