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This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

Statistical models can involve implicitly defined quantities, such as solutions to nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs), that unavoidably need to be numerically approximated in order to evaluate the model. The approximation…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-09-16 Juho Timonen , Nikolas Siccha , Ben Bales , Harri Lähdesmäki , Aki Vehtari

Bayesian methods of sampling from a posterior distribution are becoming increasingly popular due to their ability to precisely display the uncertainty of a model fit. Classical methods based on iterative random sampling and posterior…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-11-04 Jacopo Guidolin , Vyacheslav Kungurtsev , Ondřej Kuželka

Approximate Bayesian inference for neural networks is considered a robust alternative to standard training, often providing good performance on out-of-distribution data. However, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with high-fidelity…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-12-07 Pavel Izmailov , Patrick Nicholson , Sanae Lotfi , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Bayesian Networks (BNs) are useful tools giving a natural and compact representation of joint probability distributions. In many applications one needs to learn a Bayesian Network (BN) from data. In this context, it is important to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2012-07-02 Or Zuk , Shiri Margel , Eytan Domany

Large neural networks trained on large datasets have become the dominant paradigm in machine learning. These systems rely on maximum likelihood point estimates of their parameters, precluding them from expressing model uncertainty. This may…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-01 Javier Antoran

Deep neural networks offer numerous potential applications across geoscience, for example, one could argue that they are the state-of-the-art method for predicting faults in seismic datasets. In quantitative reservoir characterization…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-05-26 Lukas Mosser , Ehsan Zabihi Naeini

As data size and computing power increase, the architectures of deep neural networks (DNNs) have been getting more complex and huge, and thus there is a growing need to simplify such complex and huge DNNs. In this paper, we propose a novel…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-05-24 Insung Kong , Dongyoon Yang , Jongjin Lee , Ilsang Ohn , Yongdai Kim

Deep-learning-based data-driven forecasting methods have produced impressive results for traffic forecasting. A major limitation of these methods, however, is that they provide forecasts without estimates of uncertainty, which are critical…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-04-07 Tanwi Mallick , Prasanna Balaprakash , Jane Macfarlane

Data point selection (DPS) is becoming a critical topic in deep learning due to the ease of acquiring uncurated training data compared to the difficulty of obtaining curated or processed data. Existing approaches to DPS are predominantly…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-07 Xinnuo Xu , Minyoung Kim , Royson Lee , Brais Martinez , Timothy Hospedales

The Bayesian paradigm has the potential to solve core issues of deep neural networks such as poor calibration and data inefficiency. Alas, scaling Bayesian inference to large weight spaces often requires restrictive approximations. In this…

Bayesian neural networks and deep ensembles represent two modern paradigms of uncertainty quantification in deep learning. Yet these approaches struggle to scale mainly due to memory inefficiency issues, since they require parameter storage…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-11-24 Hippolyt Ritter , Martin Kukla , Cheng Zhang , Yingzhen Li

In recent years, the shortcomings of Bayesian posteriors as inferential devices have received increased attention. A popular strategy for fixing them has been to instead target a Gibbs measure based on losses that connect a parameter of…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-04-24 David T. Frazier , Jeremias Knoblauch , Jack Jewson , Christopher Drovandi

Bayesian estimation is a powerful theoretical paradigm for the operation of quantum sensors. However, the Bayesian method for statistical inference generally suffers from demanding calibration requirements that have so far restricted its…

量子物理 · 物理学 2021-09-22 Samuel P. Nolan , Augusto Smerzi , Luca Pezzè

Deep Bayesian neural network has aroused a great attention in recent years since it combines the benefits of deep neural network and probability theory. Because of this, the network can make predictions and quantify the uncertainty of the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-03-25 Yikuan Li , Yajie Zhu

Modern neural networks have found to be miscalibrated in terms of confidence calibration, i.e., their predicted confidence scores do not reflect the observed accuracy or precision. Recent work has introduced methods for post-hoc confidence…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2021-09-22 Fabian Küppers , Jan Kronenberger , Jonas Schneider , Anselm Haselhoff

While deep neural networks are highly performant and successful in a wide range of real-world problems, estimating their predictive uncertainty remains a challenging task. To address this challenge, we propose and implement a loss function…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-10-14 Tony Tohme , Kevin Vanslette , Kamal Youcef-Toumi

Monte Carlo sampling has become a major vehicle for approximate inference in Bayesian networks. In this paper, we investigate a family of related simulation approaches, known collectively as quasi-Monte Carlo methods based on deterministic…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2013-01-18 Jian Cheng , Marek J. Druzdzel

Deep learning has been the engine powering many successes of data science. However, the deep neural network (DNN), as the basic model of deep learning, is often excessively over-parameterized, causing many difficulties in training,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-03-09 Yan Sun , Qifan Song , Faming Liang

Sum-product networks (SPNs) are probabilistic models characterized by exact and fast evaluation of fundamental probabilistic operations. Its superior computational tractability has led to applications in many fields, such as machine…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-06-19 Soma Yokoi , Issei Sato