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Augmenting randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with external real-world data (RWD) has the potential to improve the finite sample efficiency of treatment effect estimators. We describe using adaptive targeted maximum likelihood estimation…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-30 Sky Qiu , Jens Tarp , Andrew Mertens , Mark van der Laan

Finding the features relevant to the difference in treatment effects is essential to unveil the underlying causal mechanisms. Existing methods seek such features by measuring how greatly the feature attributes affect the degree of the {\it…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-06-14 Yoichi Chikahara , Makoto Yamada , Hisashi Kashima

We consider the problem of estimating the effects of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome of interest from observational data in the absence of confounding by unmeasured factors. We provide a new estimator of the population average…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-08-04 James Robins , Mariela Sued , Quanhong Lei-Gomez , Andrea Rotnitzky

Heterogeneous treatment effect estimation in high-stakes applications demands models that simultaneously optimize precision, interpretability, and calibration. Many existing tree-based causal inference techniques, however, exhibit high…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-21 Yichen Liu

This note introduces a doubly robust (DR) estimator for regression discontinuity (RD) designs. RD designs provide a quasi-experimental framework for estimating treatment effects, where treatment assignment depends on whether a running…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-01-28 Masahiro Kato

Proximal causal learning is a promising framework for identifying the causal effect under the existence of unmeasured confounders. Within this framework, the doubly robust (DR) estimator was derived and has shown its effectiveness in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-12 Yong Wu , Yanwei Fu , Shouyan Wang , Xinwei Sun

Controlled Direct Effect (CDE) is one of the causal estimands used to evaluate both exposure and mediation effects on an outcome. When there are unmeasured confounders existing between the mediator and the outcome, the ordinary…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-30 Shunichiro Orihara , Shinpei Imori , Kosuke Morikawa , Atsushi Goto , Masataka Taguri

One of the major challenges in estimating conditional potential outcomes and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is the presence of hidden confounders. Since testing for hidden confounders cannot be accomplished only with…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-17 Ahmed Aloui , Juncheng Dong , Ali Hasan , Vahid Tarokh

This article proposes doubly robust estimators for the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) in difference-in-differences (DID) research designs. In contrast to alternative DID estimators, the proposed estimators are consistent if…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2020-05-07 Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna , Jun B. Zhao

Causal inference on the average treatment effect (ATE) using non-probability samples, such as electronic health records (EHR), faces challenges from sample selection bias and high-dimensional covariates. This requires considering a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-28 Jiacong Du , Xu Shi , Donglin Zeng , Bhramar Mukherjee

We propose a novel multi-task neural network approach for estimating distributional treatment effects (DTE) in randomized experiments. While DTE provides more granular insights into the experiment outcomes over conventional methods focusing…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-11 Tomu Hirata , Undral Byambadalai , Tatsushi Oka , Shota Yasui , Shingo Uto

Causal learning is the key to obtaining stable predictions and answering \textit{what if} problems in decision-makings. In causal learning, it is central to seek methods to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) from observational…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-12-07 Yiyan Huang , Cheuk Hang Leung , Qi Wu , Xing Yan

This study investigates the estimation and the statistical inference about Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs), which have garnered attention as a metric representing individualized causal effects. In our data-generating process,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-07 Masahiro Kato

When treatment effects are naturally expressed as ratios -- as in medicine, pricing, and marketing -- the ratio-based CATE $\tau(x) = E[Y|W=1,X=x] / E[Y|W=0,X=x]$ is the appropriate estimand. Yet existing estimators either impose a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-27 Michael Fuchs , Dominik Kreiss

Modern causal inference methods allow machine learning to be used to weaken parametric modeling assumptions. However, the use of machine learning may result in complications for inference. Doubly-robust cross-fit estimators have been…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-11 Paul N Zivich , Alexander Breskin

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is important to tailor treatments to those individuals who would most likely benefit. However, conditional average treatment effect predictors may often be trained on one population but possibly…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-18 Christoph Kern , Michael Kim , Angela Zhou

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often suffer from limited inferential efficiency in estimating treatment effects due to their small sample sizes. In recent years, incorporating external controls (ECs) has gained increasing attention as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-16 Qinwei Yang , Jingyi Li , Peng Wu , Shu Yang

Heterogeneous effect estimation plays a crucial role in causal inference, with applications across medicine and social science. Many methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) have been proposed in recent years,…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-08-22 Edward H. Kennedy

A recommender system generates personalized recommendations for a user by computing the preference score of items, sorting the items according to the score, and filtering top-K items with high scores. While sorting and ranking items are…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2020-12-08 Hyunsung Lee , Yeongjae Jang , Jaekwang Kim , Honguk Woo

Randomized trials are typically designed to detect average treatment effects but often lack the statistical power to uncover individual-level treatment effect heterogeneity, limiting their value for personalized decision-making. To address…