相关论文: Parameter uncertainties for imperfect surrogate mo…

In the usual Bayesian setting, a full probabilistic model is required to link the data and parameters, and the form of this model and the inference and prediction mechanisms are specified via de Finetti's representation. In general, such a…

Parameter estimates in misspecified models converge to pseudo-true parameter values, which minimize a population objective function. Pseudo-true values often differ from quantities of economic interest, raising questions of how, if at all,…

Bayesian optimisation has gained great popularity as a tool for optimising the parameters of machine learning algorithms and models. Somewhat ironically, setting up the hyper-parameters of Bayesian optimisation methods is notoriously hard.…

Fast machine learning-based surrogate models are trained to emulate slow, high-fidelity engineering simulation models to accelerate engineering design tasks. This introduces uncertainty as the surrogate is only an approximation of the…

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

Change-plane regression identifies subpopulations through an interpretable linear threshold rule, but likelihood-based inference for the hard-threshold boundary is nonregular: objectives are non-smooth, the boundary is weakly identified…

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

Mathematical models of real life phenomena are highly nonlinear involving multiple parameters and often exhibiting complex dynamics. Experimental data sets are typically small and noisy, rendering estimation of parameters from such data…

We consider the prediction of weak effects in a multiple-output regression setup, when covariates are expected to explain a small amount, less than $\approx 1%$, of the variance of the target variables. To facilitate the prediction of the…

Bayesian inference is a popular approach to calibrating uncertainties, but it can underpredict such uncertainties when model misspecification is present, impacting its reliability to inform decision making. Recently, the statistics and…

The widespread adoption of machine learning surrogate models has significantly improved the scale and complexity of systems and processes that can be explored accurately and efficiently using atomistic modeling. However, the inherently…

We propose a novel iterative algorithm for estimating a deterministic but unknown parameter vector in the presence of model uncertainties. This iterative algorithm is based on a system model where an overall noise term describes both, the…

Well-established methods for the solution of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) typically struggle in problems with high-dimensional inputs/outputs. Such difficulties are only amplified in large-scale applications where even…

The interplay between missing data and model uncertainty -- two classic statistical problems -- leads to primary questions that we formally address from an objective Bayesian perspective. For the general regression problem, we discuss the…

We empirically show that Bayesian inference can be inconsistent under misspecification in simple linear regression problems, both in a model averaging/selection and in a Bayesian ridge regression setting. We use the standard linear model,…

We study full Bayesian procedures for sparse linear regression when errors have a symmetric but otherwise unknown distribution. The unknown error distribution is endowed with a symmetrized Dirichlet process mixture of Gaussians. For the…

Model misspecification is a long-standing enigma of the Bayesian inference framework as posteriors tend to get overly concentrated on ill-informed parameter values towards the large sample limit. Tempering of the likelihood has been…

A nonparanormal graphical model is a semiparametric generalization of a Gaussian graphical model for continuous variables in which it is assumed that the variables follow a Gaussian graphical model only after some unknown smooth monotone…

We study frequentist asymptotic properties of Bayesian procedures for high-dimensional Gaussian sparse regression when unknown nuisance parameters are involved. Nuisance parameters can be finite-, high-, or infinite-dimensional. A mixture…

A key factor in ensuring the accuracy of computer simulations that model physical systems is the proper calibration of their parameters based on real-world observations or experimental data. Inevitably, uncertainties arise, and Bayesian…