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In gamma-ray astronomy and cosmic-ray physics, the continuous approximation of inverse Compton scattering (ICS) is widely adopted to model the evolution of electron energy. However, when the initial electron energy approaches $\sim100$ TeV,…

高能天体物理现象 · 物理学 2026-04-21 Junji Xia , Xingjian Lv , Kun Fang , Siming Liu

This paper provides a set of methods for quantifying the robustness of treatment effects estimated using the unconfoundedness assumption (also known as selection on observables or conditional independence). Specifically, we estimate and do…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2021-01-01 Matthew A. Masten , Alexandre Poirier , Linqi Zhang

Individualized treatments are crucial for optimal decision making and treatment allocation, specifically in personalized medicine based on the estimation of an individual's dose-response curve across a continuum of treatment levels, e.g.,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-20 Max Sampson , Kung-Sik Chan

In recent years, there has been growing interest in causal machine learning estimators for quantifying subject-specific effects of a binary treatment on time-to-event outcomes. Estimation approaches have been proposed which attenuate the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-30 Matthew Pryce , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Ruth H. Keogh , Stijn Vansteelandt

In this paper, we consider estimation of average treatment effect on the treated (ATT), an interpretable and relevant causal estimand to policy makers when treatment assignment is endogenous. By considering shadow variables that are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-21 Trinetri Ghosh , Jiawei Shan , Menggang Yu , Jiwei Zhao

Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW), which has been used to estimate sample average treatment effects (SATE) using observational data, tenuously relies on the positivity assumption and the correct specification of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-05-23 Nathan Kallus , Brenton Pennicooke , Michele Santacatterina

Instrumental variable methods provide a powerful approach to estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding. But a key challenge when applying them is the reliance on untestable "exclusion" assumptions that rule out any…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-06-23 Jason Hartford , Victor Veitch , Dhanya Sridhar , Kevin Leyton-Brown

Modern causal decision-making increasingly demands individualized treatment-effect estimation in networks where interventions are high-dimensional, combinatorial vectors. While network interference, effect heterogeneity, and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-24 Yunping Lu , Haoang Chi , Qirui Hu , Zhiheng Zhang

This paper studies treatment effect models in which individuals are classified into unobserved groups based on heterogeneous treatment rules. Using a finite mixture approach, we propose a marginal treatment effect (MTE) framework in which…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-05-24 Tadao Hoshino , Takahide Yanagi

We introduce Interpolation Consistency Training (ICT), a simple and computation efficient algorithm for training Deep Neural Networks in the semi-supervised learning paradigm. ICT encourages the prediction at an interpolation of unlabeled…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-10-20 Vikas Verma , Kenji Kawaguchi , Alex Lamb , Juho Kannala , Arno Solin , Yoshua Bengio , David Lopez-Paz

Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic…

We consider the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects with arbitrary machine learning methods in the presence of unobserved confounders with the aid of a valid instrument. Such settings arise in A/B tests with an intent-to-treat…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2019-06-07 Vasilis Syrgkanis , Victor Lei , Miruna Oprescu , Maggie Hei , Keith Battocchi , Greg Lewis

We address the estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) for structured treatments (e.g., graphs, images, texts). Given a weak condition on the effect, we propose the generalized Robinson decomposition, which (i) isolates…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-10-29 Jean Kaddour , Yuchen Zhu , Qi Liu , Matt J. Kusner , Ricardo Silva

Population-adjusted indirect comparisons estimate treatment effects when access to individual patient data is limited and there are cross-trial differences in effect modifiers. Popular methods include matching-adjusted indirect comparison…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-11-05 Antonio Remiro-Azócar , Anna Heath , Gianluca Baio

Researchers are frequently interested in understanding the causal effect of treatment interventions. However, in some cases, the treatment of interest--readily available in a randomized controlled trial (RCT)--is either not directly…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-29 Lan Wen , Aaron L Sarvet

Estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from observational data plays a crucial role in areas such as e-commerce, healthcare, and economics. Existing studies mainly rely on the strong ignorability assumption that there…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-28 Chuan Zhou , Yaxuan Li , Chunyuan Zheng , Haiteng Zhang , Haoxuan Li , Mingming Gong

Heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) are increasingly estimated using machine learning models that produce highly personalized predictions of treatment effects. In practice, however, predicted treatment effects are rarely interpreted,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-25 Joel Persson , Jurriën Bakker , Dennis Bohle , Stefan Feuerriegel , Florian von Wangenheim

We consider time to treatment initiation. This can commonly occur in preventive medicine, such as disease screening and vaccination; it can also occur with non-fatal health conditions such as HIV infection without the onset of AIDS. While…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-29 Zhichen Zhao , Andrew Ying , Ronghui Xu

Conditional effect estimation has great scientific and policy importance because interventions may impact subjects differently depending on their characteristics. Most research has focused on estimating the conditional average treatment…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-04-25 Alec McClean , Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy

In sequential causal inference, one estimates the causal net effect of treatment in treatment sequence on an outcome after last treatment in the presence of time-dependent covariates between treatments, improves the estimation by the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-11-18 Li Yin , Xiaoqin Wang
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