相关论文: A method for characterizing disease emergence curv…
Chronic diseases are long-lasting conditions that require lifelong medical attention. Using big EMR data, we have developed early disease risk prediction models for five common chronic diseases: diabetes, hypertension, CKD, COPD, and…
We study Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Infectious-Recovered (SEAIR) epidemic spreading model of COVID-19. It captures two important characteristics of the infectiousness of COVID-19: delayed start and its appearance before onset of…
We present three data driven model-types for COVID-19 with a minimal number of parameters to provide insights into the spread of the disease that may be used for developing policy responses. The first is exponential growth, widely studied…
Super-spreading events for infectious diseases occur when some infected individuals infect more than the average number of secondary cases. Several super-spreading individuals have been identified for the 2003 outbreak of severe acute…
The ever-changing world of disease study heavily relies on mathematical models. They are key in finding and controlling infectious diseases. We aim to explore these mathematical tools used for studying disease spread in biology. The SEIR…
A pipeline to evaluate the evolution of viral dynamics based on a new model-driven approach has been developed in the present study. The proposed methods exploit real data and the multiscale structure of the infection dynamics to provide…
Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…
Despite the progress in medical data collection the actual burden of SARS-CoV-2 remains unknown due to under-ascertainment of cases. This was apparent in the acute phase of the pandemic and the use of reported deaths has been pointed out as…
We introduce and analyze coupled, multi-strain epidemic models designed to simulate the emergence and dissemination of mutant (e.g. drug-resistant) pathogen strains. In particular, we investigate the mathematical and biological properties…
The rapid spread of the Coronavirus SARS-2 is a major challenge that led almost all governments worldwide to take drastic measures to respond to the tragedy. Chief among those measures is the massive lockdown of entire countries and cities,…
The spread of an infectious disease can, in some cases, promote the propagation of other pathogens favouring violent outbreaks, which cause a discontinuous transition to an endemic state. The topology of the contact network plays a crucial…
In the post-pandemic era of COVID-19, hospitalization remains a primary public health concern and wastewater surveillance has become an important tool for monitoring its dynamics at the level of community. However, there is usually no…
Epidemic models often reflect characteristic features of infectious spreading processes by coupled non-linear differential equations considering different states of health (such as Susceptible, Infected, or Recovered). This compartmental…
Studies on how to model the interplay between diseases and behavioral responses (so-called coupled disease-behavior interaction) have attracted increasing attention. Owing to the lack of obvious clinical evidence of diseases, or the…
In this work, we study the epidemic SIR model on a system which takes into consideration face-to-face interaction networks. This approach has been used as prototype to describe people interactions in different kinds of social organizations…
We consider in this paper a general SEIRS model describing the dynamics of an infectious disease including latency, waning immunity and infection-induced mortality. We derive an infinite system of differential equations that provides an…
The susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model describes the evolution of three species of individuals which are subject to an infection and recovery mechanism. A susceptible $S$ can become infectious with an infection rate $\beta$ by an…
When the body gets infected by a pathogen the immune system develops pathogen-specific immunity. Induced immunity decays in time and years after recovery the host might become susceptible again. Exposure to the pathogen in the environment…
A class of multiple-timescale asymptotic solutions to the equations of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model is presented for the case of high basic reproduction number, with the inverse of the latter employed as the expansion…
Human behavior plays a critical role in shaping epidemic trajectories. During health crises, people respond in diverse ways in terms of self-protection and adherence to recommended measures, largely reflecting differences in how individuals…