相关论文: Merging uncertainty sets via majority vote

Hypothesis test plays a key role in uncertain statistics based on uncertain measure. This paper extends the parametric hypothesis of a single uncertain population to multiple cases, thereby addressing a broader range of scenarios. First, an…

We develop methods for forming prediction sets in an online setting where the data generating distribution is allowed to vary over time in an unknown fashion. Our framework builds on ideas from conformal inference to provide a general…

Uncertainty decomposition refers to the task of decomposing the total uncertainty of a predictive model into aleatoric (data) uncertainty, resulting from inherent randomness in the data-generating process, and epistemic (model) uncertainty,…

AI predictive systems are increasingly embedded in decision making pipelines, shaping high stakes choices once made solely by humans. Yet robust decisions under uncertainty still rely on capabilities that current AI lacks: domain knowledge…

Conformal prediction quantifies the uncertainty of machine learning models by augmenting point predictions with valid prediction sets. For complex scenarios involving multiple trials, models, or data sources, conformal prediction sets can…

Accurate uncertainty quantification is a critical challenge in machine learning. While neural networks are highly versatile and capable of learning complex patterns, they often lack interpretability due to their ``black box'' nature. On the…

Clinical dataset labels are rarely certain as annotators disagree and confidence is not uniform across cases. Typical aggregation procedures, such as majority voting, obscure this variability. In simple experiments on medical imaging…

We show how to convert any clustering into a prediction set. This has the effect of converting the clustering into a (possibly overlapping) union of spheres or ellipsoids. The tuning parameters can be chosen to minimize the size of the…

In this paper we address the problem of electing a committee among a set of $m$ candidates and on the basis of the preferences of a set of $n$ voters. We consider the approval voting method in which each voter can approve as many candidates…

We introduce $k$-variance, a generalization of variance built on the machinery of random bipartite matchings. $K$-variance measures the expected cost of matching two sets of $k$ samples from a distribution to each other, capturing local…

We consider a committee voting on whether to adopt a reform under a quota rule, where members differ in how much they value the reform some supporting it, others opposing it. We examine how members can influence each other's votes through…

Clustering is widely used for unsupervised structure discovery, yet it offers limited insight into how reliable each individual assignment is. Diagnostics, such as convergence behavior or objective values, may reflect global quality, but…

There is a great need for improved statistical sampling in a range of physical, chemical and biological systems. Even simulations based on correct algorithms suffer from statistical error, which can be substantial or even dominant when slow…

Machine learning techniques always aim to reduce the generalized prediction error. In order to reduce it, ensemble methods present a good approach combining several models that results in a greater forecasting capacity. The Random Machines…

Decomposing prediction uncertainty into aleatoric (irreducible) and epistemic (reducible) components is critical for the reliable deployment of machine learning systems. While the mutual information between the response variable and model…

This paper develops a multifidelity method that enables estimation of failure probabilities for expensive-to-evaluate models via information fusion and importance sampling. The presented general fusion method combines multiple probability…

Uncertain knowledge graph embedding (UnKGE) methods learn vector representations that capture both structural and uncertainty information to predict scores of unseen triples. However, existing methods produce only point estimates, without…

Uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying reasoning language models, yet remains poorly understood under extended chain-of-thought reasoning. We study parallel sampling as a fully black-box approach using verbalized confidence and…

This work demonstrates the ability to produce readily interpretable statistical metrics for model fit, fixed effects covariance coefficients, and prediction confidence. Importantly, this work compares 4 suitable and commonly applied…

Uncertainty quantification for estimation through stochastic optimization solutions in an online setting has gained popularity recently. This paper introduces a novel inference method focused on constructing confidence intervals with…