相关论文: Posterior shrinkage towards linear subspaces

Factor models are widely used for dimension reduction. Bayesian approaches to these models often place a prior on the factor loadings that allows for infinitely many factors, with loadings increasingly shrunk toward zero as the column index…

To address the common problem of high dimensionality in tensor regressions, we introduce a generalized tensor random projection method that embeds high-dimensional tensor-valued covariates into low-dimensional subspaces with minimal loss of…

We advocate for a new statistical principle that combines the most desirable aspects of both parameter inference and density estimation. This leads us to the predictively oriented (PrO) posterior, which expresses uncertainty as a…

A wide range of systems exhibit high dimensional incomplete data. Accurate estimation of the missing data is often desired, and is crucial for many downstream analyses. Many state-of-the-art recovery methods involve supervised learning…

Linear autoregressive models serve as basic representations of discrete time stochastic processes. Different attempts have been made to provide non-linear versions of the basic autoregressive process, including different versions based on…

Accurate estimation of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty is crucial to build safe and reliable systems. Traditional approaches, such as dropout and ensemble methods, estimate uncertainty by sampling probability predictions from different…

Robust Bayesian methods for high-dimensional regression problems under diverse sparse regimes are studied. Traditional shrinkage priors are primarily designed to detect a handful of signals from tens of thousands of predictors in the…

We propose a novel variational Bayes approach to estimate high-dimensional vector autoregression (VAR) models with hierarchical shrinkage priors. Our approach does not rely on a conventional structural VAR representation of the parameter…

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

Bayesian inference for inverse problems hinges critically on the choice of priors. In the absence of specific prior information, population-level distributions can serve as effective priors for parameters of interest. With the advent of…

Large-scale black-box models have become ubiquitous across numerous applications. Understanding the influence of individual training data sources on predictions made by these models is crucial for improving their trustworthiness. Current…

Diffusion models have emerged as effective distribution estimators in vision, language, and reinforcement learning, but their use as priors in downstream tasks poses an intractable posterior inference problem. This paper studies amortized…

Large language models (LLMs) form implicit beliefs (posteriors over latent variables) from prompts, but we lack a mechanistic account of how these beliefs are encoded in representation space, how they update with new evidence, and how…

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex…

Substantial advances in Bayesian methods for causal inference have been developed in recent years. We provide an introduction to Bayesian inference for causal effects for practicing statisticians who have some familiarity with Bayesian…

Clinical prediction models must be developed using sufficiently large datasets to minimise overfitting and ensure robust predictive performance. Existing sample size calculations assume complete predictor data for all included participants,…

One of the major characteristics of financial time series is that they contain a large amount of non-stationary noise, which is challenging for deep neural networks. People normally use various features to address this problem. However, the…

Nonlinear expectation, including sublinear expectation as its special case, is a new and original framework of probability theory and has potential applications in some scientific fields, especially in finance risk measure and management.…

Power-expected-posterior (PEP) methodology, which borrows ideas from the literature on power priors, expected-posterior priors and unit information priors, provides a systematic way to construct objective priors. The basic idea is to use…

This paper considers the problem of making statistical inferences about a parameter when a narrow interval centred at a given value of the parameter is considered special, which is interpreted as meaning that there is a substantial degree…