相关论文: Posterior shrinkage towards linear subspaces

A fundamental class of inferential problems are those characterised by there having been a substantial degree of pre-data (or prior) belief that the value of a model parameter was equal or lay close to a specified value, which may, for…

Benchmark datasets used for image classification tend to have very low levels of label noise. When Bayesian neural networks are trained on these datasets, they often underfit, misrepresenting the aleatoric uncertainty of the data. A common…

Many trials are designed to collect outcomes at or around pre-specified times after randomization. If there is variability in the times when participants are actually assessed, this can pose a challenge to learning the effect of treatment,…

Power law or generalized polynomial regressions with unknown real-valued exponents and coefficients, and weakly dependent errors, are considered for observations over time, space or space--time. Consistency and asymptotic normality of…

The focus of modern biomedical studies has gradually shifted to explanation and estimation of joint effects of high dimensional predictors on disease risks. Quantifying uncertainty in these estimates may provide valuable insight into…

Adaptive experiment designs can dramatically improve statistical efficiency in randomized trials, but they also complicate statistical inference. For example, it is now well known that the sample mean is biased in adaptive trials.…

As an alternative to variable selection or shrinkage in high dimensional regression, we propose to randomly compress the predictors prior to analysis. This dramatically reduces storage and computational bottlenecks, performing well when the…

Projected priors were originally introduced to accommodate parameter constraints, but have recently regained popularity due to their ability to assign probability mass to low-dimensional parameter sets, such as the spaces of sparse vectors,…

A central challenge in statistical inference is the presence of confounding variables that may distort observed associations between treatment and outcome. Conventional "causal" methods, grounded in assumptions such as ignorability, exclude…

Data uncertainty in practical person reID is ubiquitous, hence it requires not only learning the discriminative features, but also modeling the uncertainty based on the input. This paper proposes to learn the sample posterior and the class…

Global-local shrinkage prior has been recognized as useful class of priors which can strongly shrink small signals towards prior means while keeping large signals unshrunk. Although such priors have been extensively discussed under Gaussian…

Given a reference model that includes all the available variables, projection predictive inference replaces its posterior with a constrained projection including only a subset of all variables. We extend projection predictive inference to…

We suggest how to construct joint confidence distributions for several parameters and apply these ideas to an autoregressive process of general order. The implied non informative prior for the parameters, i.e. the ratio between the…

Exponential tilting is a technique commonly used in fields such as statistics, probability, information theory, and optimization to create parametric distribution shifts. Despite its prevalence in related fields, tilting has not seen…

The power-expected-posterior (PEP) prior provides an objective, automatic, consistent and parsimonious model selection procedure. At the same time it resolves the conceptual and computational problems due to the use of imaginary data.…

The prior distribution for the unknown model parameters plays a crucial role in the process of statistical inference based on Bayesian methods. However, specifying suitable priors is often difficult even when detailed prior knowledge is…

Neural networks are popular state-of-the-art models for many different tasks.They are often trained via back-propagation to find a value of the weights that correctly predicts the observed data. Although back-propagation has shown good…

This paper considers the task of learning how to make a prognosis of a patient based on his/her micro-array expression levels. The method is an application of the aggregation method as recently proposed in the literature on theoretical…

We analyze a lightweight simulation-based inference method that infers simulator parameters using only a regression-based projection of the observed data. After fitting a surrogate linear regression once, the procedure simulates small…

Aims: To propose a general sample size framework for developing or updating a clinical prediction model using any statistical or machine learning method, based on drawing samples from anticipated posterior distributions and targeting…