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Ensemble data assimilation methods such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are a key component of probabilistic weather forecasting. They represent the uncertainty in the initial conditions by an ensemble which incorporates information…

应用统计 · 统计学 2018-10-17 Sylvain Robert , Daniel Leuenberger , Hans R. Künsch

We propose an approach based on function evaluations and Bayesian inference to extract higher-order differential information of objective functions {from a given ensemble of particles}. Pointwise evaluation $\{V(x^i)\}_i$ of some potential…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-03-02 Claudia Schillings , Claudia Totzeck , Philipp Wacker

The iterative ensemble Kalman filter (IEnKF) is widely used in inverse problems to estimate system parameters from limited observations. However, the IEnKF, when applied to nonlinear systems, can be plagued by poor convergence. Here we…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2019-10-11 Jiacheng Wu , Jian-Xun Wang , Shawn C. Shadden

Randomized algorithms exploit stochasticity to reduce computational complexity. One important example is random feature regression (RFR) that accelerates Gaussian process regression (GPR). RFR approximates an unknown function with a random…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-26 Oliver R. A. Dunbar , Nicholas H. Nelsen , Maya Mutic

We study the use of novel techniques arising in machine learning for inverse problems. Our approach replaces the complex forward model by a neural network, which is trained simultaneously in a one-shot sense when estimating the unknown…

数值分析 · 数学 2020-09-15 Philipp A. Guth , Claudia Schillings , Simon Weissmann

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a data assimilation technique that uses an ensemble of models, updated with data, to track the time evolution of a usually non-linear system. It does so by using an empirical approximation to the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-03-12 Elizabeth Hou , Earl Lawrence , Alfred O. Hero

Inverse problems are more challenging when only partial data are available in general. In this paper, we propose a two-step approach combining the extended sampling method and the ensemble Kalman filter to reconstruct an elastic rigid…

数值分析 · 数学 2020-10-13 Zhaoxing Li , Jiguang Sun , Liwei Xu

High-fidelity simulations are essential for predicting material behavior under high-velocity impact (HVI), but their accuracy depends on material models and parameters that are often calibrated by manual fitting to multiple costly…

材料科学 · 物理学 2026-04-01 Rong Jin , Guangyao Wang , Xingsheng Sun

Inferring the state and unknown parameters of a network of coupled oscillators is of utmost importance. This task is made harder when only partial and noisy observations are available, which is a typical scenario in realistic…

适应与自组织系统 · 物理学 2025-04-07 Lauren D. Smith , Georg A. Gottwald

Bayesian experimental design (BED) offers a principled framework for optimizing data acquisition by leveraging probabilistic inference. However, practical implementations of BED are often compromised by model discrepancy, i.e., the mismatch…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-25 Huchen Yang , Xinghao Dong , Jin-Long Wu

Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) has been proposed as an efficient method for the approximate solution of Bayesian inverse problems with expensive forward models. However, when applied to the Bayesian inverse problem EKI is only exact in the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-11-19 Richard D. P. Grumitt , Minas Karamanis , Uroš Seljak

Extreme-mass-ratio inspiral (EMRI) signals pose significant challenges in gravitational wave (GW) astronomy owing to their low-frequency nature and highly complex waveforms, which occupy a high-dimensional parameter space with numerous…

This study presents a novel approach to applying data assimilation techniques for particle-based simulations using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. While data assimilation methods have been effectively applied to Eulerian simulations, their…

数值分析 · 数学 2024-12-10 Marius Duvillard , Loïc Giraldi , Olivier Le Maître

Variational inference (VI) combined with Bayesian nonlinear filtering produces state-of-the-art results for latent time-series modeling. A body of recent work has focused on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and its variants, e.g., forward…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-11-10 Tsuyoshi Ishizone , Tomoyuki Higuchi , Kazuyuki Nakamura

The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was introduced by Evensen in 1994 [10] as a novel method for data assimilation: state estimation for noisily observed time-dependent problems. Since that time it has had enormous impact in many application…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2013-04-08 Marco A. Iglesias , Kody J. H. Law , Andrew M. Stuart

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference for logistic regression using appropriate extensions of the ensemble Kalman filter. Two interacting particle systems are proposed that sample from an approximate posterior and prove…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-07-02 Diksha Bhandari , Jakiw Pidstrigach , Sebastian Reich

Bayesian experimental design (BED) for complex physical systems is often limited by the nested inference required to estimate the expected information gain (EIG) or its gradients. Each outer sample induces a different posterior, creating a…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2026-04-21 Huchen Yang , Xinghao Dong , Jinlong Wu

System identification poses a significant bottleneck to characterizing and controlling complex systems. This challenge is greatest when both the system states and parameters are not directly accessible leading to a dual-estimation problem.…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2021-04-08 Matthew F. Singh , Chong Wang , Michael W. Cole , ShiNung Ching

Frequency-domain electromagnetic instruments allow the collection of data in different configurations, that is, varying the intercoil spacing, the frequency, and the height above the ground. Their handy size makes these tools very practical…

Contemporary data assimilation often involves more than a million prediction variables. Ensemble Kalman filters (EnKF) have been developed by geoscientists. They are successful indispensable tools in science and engineering, because they…

概率论 · 数学 2017-05-26 Andrew J. Majda , Xin T. Tong