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The increasing penetration of photovoltaic (PV) generation introduces significant uncertainty into power system operation, necessitating forecasting approaches that extend beyond deterministic point predictions. This paper proposes an…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-06 Slawek Smyl , Paweł Pełka , Grzegorz Dudek

Accurate and reliable forecasting of renewable energy generation is crucial for the efficient integration of renewable sources into the power grid. In particular, probabilistic forecasts are becoming essential for managing the intrinsic…

应用统计 · 统计学 2025-02-12 Alireza Moradi , Mathieu Tanneau , Reza Zandehshahvar , Pascal Van Hentenryck

Accurate parameterization of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) installations is critical for effective grid management and strategic large-scale solar deployment. The lack of high-fidelity datasets for PV configuration parameters often compels…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2025-05-27 Bowen Tian , Roel C. G. M. Loonen , Roland Valckenborg , Jan L. M. Hensen

Wind energy plays an increasing role in the supply of energy world-wide. The energy output of a wind farm is highly dependent on the weather condition present at the wind farm. If the output can be predicted more accurately, energy…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2011-09-12 Katya Vladislavleva , Tobias Friedrich , Frank Neumann , Markus Wagner

Global and regional climate model projections are useful for gauging future patterns of climate variables, including solar radiation, but data from these models is often too coarse to assess local impacts. Within the context of solar…

应用统计 · 统计学 2024-05-21 Maggie Bailey , Doug Nychka , Manajit Sengupta , Jaemo Yang , Soutir Bandyopadhyay

Solar energy is one of the most economical and clean sustainable energy sources on the planet. However, the solar energy throughput is highly unpredictable due to its dependency on a plethora of conditions including weather, seasons, and…

计算机与社会 · 计算机科学 2019-02-21 Nirupam Bidikar , Kotoju Rajitha , P. Usha Supriya

Due to the increasing proportion of distributed photovoltaic (PV) production in the generation mix, the knowledge of the PV generation capacity has become a key factor. In this work, we propose to compute the PV plant maximum power starting…

系统与控制 · 计算机科学 2017-05-12 Enrica Scolari , Fabrizio Sossan , Mario Paolone

As the use of solar power increases, having accurate and timely forecasts will be essential for smooth grid operators. There are many proposed methods for forecasting solar irradiance / solar power production. However, many of these methods…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-07-11 Timothy Cargan , Dario Landa-Silva , Isaac Triguero

The photovoltaics (PV) technology landscape is evolving rapidly. To predict the potential and scalability of emerging PV technologies, a global understanding of these systems' performance is essential. Traditionally, experimental and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-29 Jabir Bin Jahangir , Muhammad Ashraful Alam

Despite the increasing importance of forecasts of renewable energy, current planning studies only address a general estimate of the forecast quality to be expected and selected forecast horizons. However, these estimates allow only a…

应用统计 · 统计学 2019-06-03 Jens Schreiber , Artjom Buschin , Bernhard Sick

This paper presents a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) based hybrid PV forecasting framework for enhancing hours-ahead utility-scale PV forecasting. The hybrid framework consists of two forecasting models: a physics-based trend…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2022-08-18 Yiyan Li , Lidong Song , Si Zhang , Laura Kraus , Taylor Adcox , Roger Willardson , Abhishek Komandur , Ning Lu

The integration of renewable energy sources (RES) into power grids presents significant challenges due to their intrinsic stochasticity and uncertainty, necessitating the development of new techniques for reliable and efficient forecasting.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-09-13 Hanyu Zhang , Reza Zandehshahvar , Mathieu Tanneau , Pascal Van Hentenryck

Accurate prediction of wind power is essential for the grid integration of this intermittent renewable source and aiding grid planners in forecasting available wind capacity. Spatial differences lead to discrepancies in climatological data…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-21 Md Saiful Islam Sajol , Md Shazid Islam , A S M Jahid Hasan , Md Saydur Rahman , Jubair Yusuf

Accurate forecasting of renewable generation is crucial to facilitate the integration of Renewable Energy Sources into the power system. Focusing on photovoltaic (PV) units, forecasting methods can be divided into two main categories:…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-29 Matteo Tortora , Francesco Conte , Gianluca Natrella , Paolo Soda

Ahead-of-time forecasting of the output power of power plants is essential for the stability of the electricity grid and ensuring uninterrupted service. However, forecasting renewable energy sources is difficult due to the chaotic behavior…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2023-10-27 Anas Al-lahham , Obaidah Theeb , Khaled Elalem , Tariq A. Alshawi , Saleh A. Alshebeili

Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting plays a critical role in power system dispatch and market participation. Because PV generation is highly sensitive to weather conditions and cloud motion, accurate forecasting requires effective modeling…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-04-07 Hang Fan , Haoran Pei , Runze Liang , Weican Liu , Long Cheng , Wei Wei

The advancement of distributed generation technologies in modern power systems has led to a widespread integration of renewable power generation at customer side. However, the intermittent nature of renewable energy poses new challenges to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-01-31 Devinder Kaur , Shama Naz Islam , Md. Apel Mahmud , Md. Enamul Haque , Adnan Anwar

This paper considers a typical solar installations scenario with limited sensing resources. In the literature, there exist either day-ahead solar generation prediction methods with limited accuracy, or high accuracy short timescale methods…

应用统计 · 统计学 2015-08-12 Yubo Wang , Bin Wang , Rui Huang , Chi-Cheng Chu , Hemanshu R. Pota , Rajit Gadh

Weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models play a central role in solar energy forecasting, where a cascade of physics-based models is used in a model chain approach to convert forecasts of solar irradiance to solar power…

应用统计 · 统计学 2024-06-10 Nina Horat , Sina Klerings , Sebastian Lerch

Deployment of high-penetration photovoltaic (PV) power is expected to have a range of effects -- both positive and negative -- on the distribution grid. The magnitude of these effects may vary greatly depending upon feeder topology,…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2015-06-23 Michael A. Cohen , Duncan S. Callaway