相关论文: An age-structured SVEAIR epidemiological model
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
Some viruses, such as human immunodeficiency virus, can infect several types of cell populations. The age of infection can also affect the dynamics of infected cells and production of viral particles. In this work, we study a virus model…
We propose a general Bayesian approach to modeling epidemics such as COVID-19. The approach grew out of specific analyses conducted during the pandemic, in particular an analysis concerning the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions…
In this paper we propose a macro-dynamic age-structured set-up for the analysis of epidemics/economic dynamics in continuous time. The resulting optimal control problem is reformulated in an infinite dimensional Hilbert space framework…
Structured populations are ubiquitous across the biological sciences. Mathematical models of these populations allow us to understand how individual physiological traits drive the overall dynamics in aggregate. For example, linear age- or…
To reduce the biases of traditional survey-based methods, this paper proposes an epidemic model-based approach to inference the incubation period distribution of COVID-19 utilizing the publicly reported confirmed case number. We construct…
The impact of spatial structure on the spread of an epidemic is an important issue in the propagation of infectious diseases. Recent studies, both deterministic and stochastic, have made it possible to understand the importance of the…
This paper proposes and analyzes a malaria transmission model structured by the chronological age of the human host population. The model couples an age-structured SIRS system for humans, incorporating waning immunity, with an SI system for…
The growing literature on the propagation of COVID-19 relies on various dynamic SIR-type models (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) which yield model-dependent results. For transparency and ease of comparing the results, we introduce a common…
We consider the spread of infectious diseases through a Mean Field Game version of a SIR compartmental model with social structure, in which individuals are grouped by their age class and interact together in different settings. In our game…
We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…
Individual contributions to the spread of an epidemic vary widely due to an individual's location in a social network and their intrinsic ability to spread or contract diseases. While the effect of heterogeneous population structure and…
The goal of this work is to consider widespread use of face masks as a non-pharmaceutical control strategy for the Covid-19 pandemic. A SEIR model that divides the population into individuals that wear masks and those that do not is…
The coronavirus pandemic has rapidly evolved into an unprecedented crisis. The susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model and its variants have been used for modeling the pandemic. However, time-independent parameters in the classical…
Motivated by our intention to use SIR-type epidemiological models in the context of dynamic networks as provided by large-scale highly interacting inhomogeneous human crowds, we investigate in this framework possibilities to reduce the…
The study of epidemic models plays an important role in mathematical epidemiology. There are many researches on epidemic models using ordinary differential equations, partial differential equations or stochastic differential equations. In…
We study Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Infectious-Recovered (SEAIR) epidemic spreading model of COVID-19. It captures two important characteristics of the infectiousness of COVID-19: delayed start and its appearance before onset of…
We introduce a theoretical framework that highlights the impact of physical distancing variables such as human mobility and physical proximity on the evolution of epidemics and, crucially, on the reproduction number. In particular, in…
We study a stochastic epidemic model with multiple patches (locations), where individuals in each patch are categorized into three compartments, Susceptible, Infected and Recovered/Removed, and may migrate from one patch to another in any…
Accurate estimates of the reproduction ratio are crucial to project infectious disease epidemic evolution and guide public health response. Here, we prove that estimates of the reproduction ratio based on inference from surveillance data…