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The frequentist variability of Bayesian posterior expectations can provide meaningful measures of uncertainty even when models are misspecified. Classical methods to asymptotically approximate the frequentist covariance of Bayesian…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-28 Ryan Giordano , Tamara Broderick

Observational astrophysics consists of making inferences about the Universe by comparing data and models. The credible intervals placed on model parameters are often as important as the maximum a posteriori probability values, as the…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2021-12-15 Will J. Percival , Oliver Friedrich , Elena Sellentin , Alan Heavens

In this paper, we present a comprehensive analysis of the posterior covariance field in Gaussian processes, with applications to the posterior covariance matrix. The analysis is based on the Gaussian prior covariance but the approach also…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-04-03 Difeng Cai , Edmond Chow , Yuanzhe Xi

In statistical applications, it is common to encounter parameters supported on a varying or unknown dimensional space. Examples include the fused lasso regression, the matrix recovery under an unknown low rank, etc. Despite the ease of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-04 Maoran Xu , Hua Zhou , Yujie Hu , Leo L. Duan

This paper presents a Bayesian reformulation of covariate-assisted principal (CAP) regression of Zhao and others (2021), which aims to identify components in the covariance of response signal that are associated with covariates in a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-08-30 Hyung G. Park

Recent progress in variational inference has paid much attention to the flexibility of variational posteriors. One promising direction is to use implicit distributions, i.e., distributions without tractable densities as the variational…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-02-26 Jiaxin Shi , Shengyang Sun , Jun Zhu

Bayesian deep learning approaches assume model parameters to be latent random variables and infer posterior distributions to quantify uncertainty, increase safety and trust, and prevent overconfident and unpredictable behavior. However,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-07-13 Jihao Andreas Lin , Joe Watson , Pascal Klink , Jan Peters

Performing exact posterior inference in complex generative models is often difficult or impossible due to an expensive to evaluate or intractable likelihood function. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an inference framework that…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-02-16 Jovana Mitrovic , Dino Sejdinovic , Yee Whye Teh

In multivariate statistics, estimating the covariance matrix is essential for understanding the interdependence among variables. In high-dimensional settings, where the number of covariates increases with the sample size, it is well known…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-10-24 Seongmin Kim , Kwangmin Lee , Sewon Park , Jaeyong Lee

Covariance matrix estimation arises in multivariate problems including multivariate normal sampling models and regression models where random effects are jointly modeled, e.g. random-intercept, random-slope models. A Bayesian analysis of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-07-14 Ignacio Alvarez , Jarad Niemi , Matt Simpson

We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-03 Magid Sabbagh , David A. Stephens

In the Bayesian approach to inverse problems, data are often informative, relative to the prior, only on a low-dimensional subspace of the parameter space. Significant computational savings can be achieved by using this subspace to…

Gaussian Process regression is a kernel method successfully adopted in many real-life applications. Recently, there is a growing interest on extending this method to non-Euclidean input spaces, like the one considered in this paper,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-12-05 Antonio Candelieri , Andrea Ponti , Francesco Archetti

Covariance matrix estimation, a classical statistical topic, poses significant challenges when the sample size is comparable to or smaller than the number of features. In this paper, we frame covariance matrix estimation as a compound…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-04 Huqin Xin , Sihai Dave Zhao

In many environmental applications involving spatially-referenced data, limitations on the number and locations of observations motivate the need for practical and efficient models for spatial interpolation, or kriging. A key component of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-09-15 Mark D. Risser , Catherine A. Calder

Kernel methods are one of the mainstays of machine learning, but the problem of kernel learning remains challenging, with only a few heuristics and very little theory. This is of particular importance in methods based on estimation of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-06-03 Seth Flaxman , Dino Sejdinovic , John P. Cunningham , Sarah Filippi

This works extends the Random Embedding Bayesian Optimization approach by integrating a warping of the high dimensional subspace within the covariance kernel. The proposed warping, that relies on elementary geometric considerations, allows…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2015-03-19 Mickaël Binois , David Ginsbourger , Olivier Roustant

In modern data analysis, nonparametric measures of discrepancies between random variables are particularly important. The subject is well-studied in the frequentist literature, while the development in the Bayesian setting is limited where…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-01-25 Qinyi Zhang , Veit Wild , Sarah Filippi , Seth Flaxman , Dino Sejdinovic

This paper focuses on Bayesian shrinkage for covariance matrix estimation. We examine posterior properties and frequentist risks of Bayesian estimators based on new hierarchical inverse-Wishart priors. More precisely, we give the existence…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2011-06-17 Mathilde Bouriga , Olivier Féron

Variational Bayesian Inference is a popular methodology for approximating posterior distributions over Bayesian neural network weights. Recent work developing this class of methods has explored ever richer parameterizations of the…

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