相关论文: Direct Amortized Likelihood Ratio Estimation

Posterior inference with an intractable likelihood is becoming an increasingly common task in scientific domains which rely on sophisticated computer simulations. Typically, these forward models do not admit tractable densities forcing…

Amortized simulation-based inference (SBI) methods train neural networks on simulated data to perform Bayesian inference. While this strategy avoids the need for tractable likelihoods, it often requires a large number of simulations and has…

Simulation models of complex dynamics in the natural and social sciences commonly lack a tractable likelihood function, rendering traditional likelihood-based statistical inference impossible. Recent advances in machine learning have…

Sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) techniques have been recently proposed for dealing with simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods. Unlike approximate Bayesian computation, SNPE techniques learn the posterior from…

In many areas of science, complex phenomena are modeled by stochastic parametric simulators, often featuring high-dimensional parameter spaces and intractable likelihoods. In this context, performing Bayesian inference can be challenging.…

Likelihood-to-evidence ratio estimation is usually cast as either a binary (NRE-A) or a multiclass (NRE-B) classification task. In contrast to the binary classification framework, the current formulation of the multiclass version has an…

The growing availability of large and complex datasets has increased interest in temporal stochastic processes that can capture stylized facts such as marginal skewness, non-Gaussian tails, long memory, and even non-Markovian dynamics.…

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is emerging as a new statistical paradigm for addressing complex scientific inference problems. By leveraging the representational power of deep neural networks, SBI can extract the most informative…

We introduce two synthetic likelihood methods for Simulation-Based Inference (SBI), to conduct either amortized or targeted inference from experimental observations when a high-fidelity simulator is available. Both methods learn a…

Discrete choice models are fundamental tools in management science, economics, and marketing for understanding and predicting decision-making. Logit-based models are dominant in applied work, largely due to their convenient closed-form…

Simulation-based inference (SBI) provides a powerful framework for inferring posterior distributions of stochastic simulators in a wide range of domains. In many settings, however, the posterior distribution is not the end goal itself --…

Bayesian simulation-based inference (SBI) methods are used in statistical models where simulation is feasible but the likelihood is intractable. Standard SBI methods can perform poorly in cases of model misspecification, and there has been…

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables Bayesian analysis when the likelihood is intractable but model simulations are available. Recent advances in statistics and machine learning, including Approximate Bayesian Computation and deep…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a framework for performing likelihood-free posterior inference for simulation models. Stochastic Variational inference (SVI) is an appealing alternative to the inefficient sampling approaches…

Simulation-based inference (SBI) with neural posterior estimation (NPE) provides rapid X-ray spectral fitting in both Gaussian and Poisson regimes by learning approximate parameter posteriors from simulations. We investigate auto-encoders…

In this paper, we introduce a new approach to constructing unbiased estimators when computing expectations of path functionals associated with stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Our randomization idea is closely related to…

Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a…

We introduce a novel combination of Bayesian Models (BMs) and Neural Networks (NNs) for making predictions with a minimum expected risk. Our approach combines the best of both worlds, the data efficiency and interpretability of a BM with…

This paper introduces a new biased estimator for the negative binomial regression model that is a generalization of Liu-type estimator proposed for the linear model in [12]. Since the variance of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is…

Sensitivity analyses reveal the influence of various modeling choices on the outcomes of statistical analyses. While theoretically appealing, they are overwhelmingly inefficient for complex Bayesian models. In this work, we propose…