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Sufficient statistics are derived for the population size and parameters of commonly used closed population mark-recapture models. Rao-Blackwellization details for improving estimators that are not functions of the statistics are presented.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-01-30 Kyle Vincent

Many problems in the geophysical sciences demand the ability to calibrate the parameters and predict the time evolution of complex dynamical models using sequentially-collected data. Here we introduce a general methodology for the joint…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-12-12 Sara Pérez-Vieites , Inés P. Mariño , Joaquín Míguez

We propose two new Bayesian smoothing methods for general state-space models with unknown parameters. The first approach is based on the particle learning and smoothing algorithm, but with an adjustment in the backward resampling weights.…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-04-20 Biao Yang , Jonathan R. Stroud , Gabriel Huerta

The decentralized particle filter (DPF) was proposed recently to increase the level of parallelism of particle filtering. Given a decomposition of the state space into two nested sets of variables, the DPF uses a particle filter to sample…

机器学习 · 统计学 2012-03-13 Mohamed Osama Ahmed , Pouyan T. Bibalan , Nando de Freitas , Simon Fauvel

We consider sequential state and parameter learning in state-space models with intractable state transition and observation processes. By exploiting low-rank tensor train (TT) decompositions, we propose new sequential learning methods for…

数值分析 · 数学 2024-07-04 Yiran Zhao , Tiangang Cui

Piecewise constant denoising can be solved either by deterministic optimization approaches, based on the Potts model, or by stochastic Bayesian procedures. The former lead to low computational time but require the selection of a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2017-10-11 Jordan Frecon , Nelly Pustelnik , Nicolas Dobigeon , Herwig Wendt , Patrice Abry

Data assimilation methods aim at estimating the state of a system by combining observations with a physical model. When sequential data assimilation is considered, the joint distribution of the latent state and the observations is described…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-04-23 Thi Tuyet Trang Chau , Pierre Ailliot , Valérie Monbet , Pierre Tandeo

Binary segmentation, which is sequential in nature is thus far the most widely used method for identifying multiple change points in statistical models. Here we propose a top down methodology called arbitrary segmentation that proceeds in a…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-06-12 Abhishek Kaul , Venkata K Jandhyala , Stergios B Fotopoulos

Stochastic processes that involve the creation of objects and relations over time are widespread, but relatively poorly studied. For example, accurate fault diagnosis in factory assembly processes requires inferring the probabilities of…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2011-09-13 P. Domingos , S. Sanghai , D. Weld

This note presents a new method for set-based joint state and parameter estimation of discrete-time systems using constrained zonotopes. This is done by extending previous set-based state estimation methods to include parameter…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2023-04-11 Brenner S. Rego , Diego Locatelli , Davide M. Raimondo , Guilherme V. Raffo

During the last two decades there has been a growing interest in Particle Filtering (PF). However, PF suffers from two long-standing problems that are referred to as sample degeneracy and impoverishment. We are investigating methods that…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2017-07-31 Tiancheng Li , Shudong Sun , Tariq P. Sattar , Juan M. Corchado

We combine conditional state density construction with an extension of the Scenario Approach for stochastic Model Predictive Control to nonlinear systems to yield a novel particle-based formulation of stochastic nonlinear output-feedback…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2020-05-01 Martin A. Sehr , Robert R. Bitmead

Population Monte Carlo has been introduced as a sequential importance sampling technique to overcome poor fit of the importance function. In this paper, we compare the performances of the original Population Monte Carlo algorithm with a…

统计计算 · 统计学 2008-02-26 Alessandra Iacobucci , Jean-Michel Marin , Christian Robert

Particle filters are computational techniques for estimating the state of dynamical systems by integrating observational data with model predictions. This work introduces a class of Localized Particle Filters (LPFs) that exploit spatial…

应用统计 · 统计学 2025-07-10 Dan Crisan , Eliana Fausti

This paper presents parallel-in-time state estimation methods for systems with Slow-Rate inTegrated Measurements (SRTM). Integrated measurements are common in various applications, and they appear in analysis of data resulting from…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-10-02 Fatemeh Yaghoobi , Simo Särkkä

A crucial function for automated vehicle technologies is accurate localization. Lane-level accuracy is not readily available from low-cost Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers because of factors such as multipath error and…

系统与控制 · 计算机科学 2017-03-28 Macheng Shen , Ding Zhao , Jing Sun , Huei Peng

In this paper, we present a novel optimization algorithm designed specifically for estimating state-space models to deal with heavy-tailed measurement noise and constraints. Our algorithm addresses two significant limitations found in…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-11-19 Yifan Yu , Shengjie Xiu , Daniel P. Palomar

Dynamical system state estimation and parameter calibration problems are ubiquitous across science and engineering. Bayesian approaches to the problem are the gold standard as they allow for the quantification of uncertainties and enable…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2024-11-12 Kairui Hao , Ilias Bilionis

This paper proposes a novel global optimization algorithm, Particle Filter-Based Optimization (PFO), designed for a class of stochastic optimization problems in which the objective function lacks an analytical form and is subject to noisy…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-06-23 Mostafa Eslami , Maryam Babazadeh

Learning a dynamical system from input/output data is a fundamental task in the control design pipeline. In the partially observed setting there are two components to identification: parameter estimation to learn the Markov parameters, and…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2021-09-08 Han Wang , James Anderson