相关论文: SMURF-THP: Score Matching-based UnceRtainty quanti…

Quantifying uncertainty of machine learning model predictions is essential for reliable decision-making, especially in safety-critical applications. Recently, uncertainty quantification (UQ) theory has advanced significantly, building on a…

In this paper, we discuss feature engineering for single-pass uncertainty estimation. For accurate uncertainty estimates, neural networks must extract differences in the feature space that quantify uncertainty. This could be achieved by…

This work targets the development of an efficient abstraction method for formal analysis and control synthesis of discrete-time stochastic hybrid systems (SHS) with linear dynamics. The focus is on temporal logic specifications, both over…

A temporal point process is a stochastic process that predicts which type of events is likely to happen and when the event will occur given a history of a sequence of events. There are various examples of occurrence dynamics in the daily…

Multi-dimensional Hawkes process (MHP) is a class of self and mutually exciting point processes that find wide range of applications -- from prediction of earthquakes to modelling of order books in high frequency trading. This paper makes…

For stochastic process models, parameter inference is often severely bottlenecked by computationally expensive likelihood functions. Simulation-based inference (SBI) bypasses this restriction by constructing amortized surrogate likelihoods,…

The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the…

Deep learning-based trajectory prediction models have demonstrated promising capabilities in capturing complex interactions. However, their out-of-distribution generalization remains a significant challenge, particularly due to unbalanced…

Many important problems require modelling large-scale spatio-temporal datasets, with one prevalent example being weather forecasting. Recently, transformer-based approaches have shown great promise in a range of weather forecasting…

Signal Temporal Logic (STL) inference learns interpretable logical rules for temporal behaviors in dynamical systems. To ensure the correctness of learned STL formulas, recent approaches have incorporated conformal prediction as a…

Due to its clustering and self-exciting properties, the Hawkes process has been used extensively in numerous fields ranging from sismology to finance. Since data is often aquired on regular time intervals, we propose a piece-wise constant…

Industrial processes generate a massive amount of monitoring data that can be exploited to uncover hidden time losses in the system. This can be used to enhance the accuracy of maintenance policies and increase the effectiveness of the…

The opaque nature of transformer-based models, particularly in applications susceptible to unethical practices such as dark-patterns in user interfaces, requires models that integrate uncertainty quantification to enhance trust in…

We present a continuous time state estimation framework that unifies traditionally individual tasks of smoothing, tracking, and forecasting (STF), for a class of targets subject to smooth motion processes, e.g., the target moves with nearly…

Organic synthesis is one of the key stumbling blocks in medicinal chemistry. A necessary yet unsolved step in planning synthesis is solving the forward problem: given reactants and reagents, predict the products. Similar to other work, we…

The neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner, 2017) is a generative model of irregularly spaced sequences of discrete events. To handle complex domains with many event types, Mei et al. (2020a) further consider a setting in which each event in…

Improving the predictive accuracy of a dynamics model is crucial to obtaining good control performance and safety from Model Predictive Controllers (MPC). One approach involves learning unmodelled (residual) dynamics, in addition to nominal…

High frequency financial data is burdened by a level of randomness that is unavoidable and obfuscates the task of modelling. This idea is reflected in the intraday evolution of limit orders book data for many financial assets and suggests…

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help…

Configurable software systems are employed in many important application domains. Understanding the performance of the systems under all configurations is critical to prevent potential performance issues caused by misconfiguration. However,…