相关论文: SMURF-THP: Score Matching-based UnceRtainty quanti…

Uncertainty estimation is important for ensuring safety and robustness of AI systems. While most research in the area has focused on un-structured prediction tasks, limited work has investigated general uncertainty estimation approaches for…

Time series data with missing values is common across many domains. Healthcare presents special challenges due to prolonged periods of sensor disconnection. In such cases, having a confidence measure for imputed values is critical. Most…

There are many research works and methods about change point detection in the literature. However, there are only a few that provide inference for such change points after being estimated. This work mainly focuses on a statistical analysis…

In this paper, we introduce Masked Multi-Step Multivariate Forecasting (MMMF), a novel and general self-supervised learning framework for time series forecasting with known future information. In many real-world forecasting scenarios, some…

Social networks represent complex ecosystems where the interactions between users or groups play a pivotal role in information dissemination, opinion formation, and social interactions. Effectively harnessing event sequence data within…

We employ uncertain parametric CTMCs with parametric transition rates and a prior on the parameter values. The prior encodes uncertainty about the actual transition rates, while the parameters allow dependencies between transition rates.…

Reliable uncertainty quantification in trajectory prediction is crucial for safety-critical autonomous driving systems, yet existing deep learning predictors lack uncertainty-aware frameworks adaptable to heterogeneous real-world scenarios.…

Reliable uncertainty quantification is critical in high-stakes applications, such as medical diagnosis, where confidently incorrect predictions can erode trust in automated decision-making systems. Traditional uncertainty quantification…

The precision of measurements of the strong coupling constant using event-shape variables in e+e- annihilations is limited by theoretical systematic uncertainties. The uncertainties are related to missing higher orders in the perturbative…

Uncertainty representation and quantification are paramount in machine learning and constitute an important prerequisite for safety-critical applications. In this paper, we propose novel measures for the quantification of aleatoric and…

Aligning structured data is a fundamental problem in computer vision and machine learning, underlying tasks such as time series analysis, human action recognition, and visual representation learning. Existing alignment methods, including…

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning systems in high-stakes domains. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees but often produces overly large prediction sets, limiting…

Multivariate time series forecasting plays a pivotal role in numerous real-world applications, including financial analysis, energy management, and traffic planning. While Transformer-based architectures have gained popularity for this…

The multivariate Hawkes process (MHP) is widely used for analyzing data streams that interact with each other, where events generate new events within their own dimension (via self-excitation) or across different dimensions (via…

Many supervised machine learning tasks, such as future state prediction in dynamical systems, require precise modeling of a forecast's uncertainty. The Multiple Hypotheses Prediction (MHP) approach addresses this problem by providing…

Signal Temporal Logic (STL) inference seeks to extract human-interpretable rules from time-series data, but existing methods lack formal confidence guarantees for the inferred rules. Conformal prediction (CP) is a technique that can provide…

Transformers are state-of-the-art in a wide range of NLP tasks and have also been applied to many real-world products. Understanding the reliability and certainty of transformer model predictions is crucial for building trustable machine…

Most existing temporal point process models are characterized by conditional intensity function. These models often require numerical approximation methods for likelihood evaluation, which potentially hurts their performance. By directly…

We study sequential change-point detection for spatio-temporal point processes, where actionable detection requires not only identifying when a distributional change occurs but also localizing where it manifests in space. While classical…

An estimation method is proposed for a wide variety of discrete time stochastic processes that have an intractable likelihood function but are otherwise conveniently specified by an integral transform such as the characteristic function,…