相关论文: An Introduction to the Calibration of Computer Mod…

Bayesian calibration of computer models tunes unknown input parameters by comparing outputs with observations. For model outputs that are distributed over space, this becomes computationally expensive because of the output size. To overcome…

The process of calibrating computer models of natural phenomena is essential for applications in the physical sciences, where plenty of domain knowledge can be embedded into simulations and then calibrated against real observations. Current…

Calibration refers to the estimation of unknown parameters which are present in computer experiments but not available in physical experiments. An accurate estimation of these parameters is important because it provides a scientific…

Computer models are used to model complex processes in various disciplines. Often, a key source of uncertainty in the behavior of complex computer models is uncertainty due to unknown model input parameters. Statistical computer model…

Calibration of computer models is a key step in making inferences, predictions, and decisions for complex science and engineering systems. We formulate and analyze a nonparametric Bayesian methodology for computer model calibration. This…

Neural networks solving real-world problems are often required not only to make accurate predictions but also to provide a confidence level in the forecast. The calibration of a model indicates how close the estimated confidence is to the…

Calibration or parameter identification is used with computational mechanics models related to observed data of the modeled process to find model parameters such that good similarity between model prediction and observation is achieved. We…

In robotics, simulation has the potential to reduce design time and costs, and lead to a more robust engineered solution and a safer development process. However, the use of simulators is predicated on the availability of good models. This…

Calibration is a classical notion from the forecasting literature which aims to address the question: how should predicted probabilities be interpreted? In a world where we only get to observe (discrete) outcomes, how should we evaluate a…

Computer models, aiming at simulating a complex real system, are often calibrated in the light of data to improve performance. Standard calibration methods assume that the optimal values of calibration parameters are invariant to the model…

Computer simulation models are widely used to study complex physical systems. A related fundamental topic is the inverse problem, also called calibration, which aims at learning about the values of parameters in the model based on…

Bayesian calibration of black-box computer models offers an established framework to obtain a posterior distribution over model parameters. Traditional Bayesian calibration involves the emulation of the computer model and an additive model…

There are many practical difficulties in the calibration of computer models to experimental data. One such complication is the fact that certain combinations of the calibration inputs can cause the code to output data lacking fundamental…

Calibration is a frequently invoked concept when useful label probability estimates are required on top of classification accuracy. A calibrated model is a function whose values correctly reflect underlying label probabilities. Calibration…

We develop a Bayesian approach called Bayesian projected calibration to address the problem of calibrating an imperfect computer model using observational data from a complex physical system. The calibration parameter and the physical…

Simulation models often have parameters as input and return outputs to understand the behavior of complex systems. Calibration is the process of estimating the values of the parameters in a simulation model in light of observed data from…

Field experiments are often difficult and expensive to make. To bypass these issues, industrial companies have developed computational codes. These codes intend to be representative of the physical system, but come with a certain amount of…

Computer model calibration is a crucial step in building a reliable computer model. In the face of massive physical observations, a fast estimation for the calibration parameters is urgently needed. To alleviate the computational burden, we…

A set of probabilistic predictions is well calibrated if the events that are predicted to occur with probability p do in fact occur about p fraction of the time. Well calibrated predictions are particularly important when machine learning…

Ordinary differential equation models are nowadays widely used for the mechanistic description of biological processes and their temporal evolution. These models typically have many unknown and non-measurable parameters, which have to be…