相关论文: Variability and Predictability of a reduced-order …

We use a simple yet Earth-like atmospheric model to propose a new framework for understanding the mathematics of blocking events. Analysing error growth rates along a very long model trajectory, we show that blockings are associated with…

Predictability of flow is examined in a barotropic vorticity model that admits low frequency regime transitions between zonal and dipolar states. Such transitions in the model were first studied by Bouchet and Simonnet (2009) and are…

The predictability of the atmosphere at short and long time scales, associated with the coupling to the ocean, is explored in a new version of the Modular Arbitrary-Order Ocean-Atmosphere Model (MAOOAM), based on a 2-layer quasi-geostrophic…

Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and…

One of the most relevant weather regimes in the mid-latitudes atmosphere is the persistent deviation from the approximately zonally symmetric jet to the emergence of blocking patterns. Such configurations are usually connected to…

The existence of persistent midlatitude atmospheric flow regimes with time-scales larger than 5-10 days and indications of preferred transitions between them motivates to develop early warning indicators for such regime transitions. In this…

We study pattern-forming instabilities in reaction-advection-diffusion systems. We develop an approach based on Lyapunov-Bloch exponents to figure out the impact of a spatially periodic mixing flow on the stability of a spatially…

The low-frequency variability of the mid-latitude atmosphere involves complex nonlinear and chaotic dynamical processes posing predictability challenges. It is characterized by sporadically recurring, often long-lived patterns of…

Friction is ubiquitous in daily life, from nanoscale machines to large engineering components. By probing the intricate interplay between system parameters and frictional behavior, scientists seek to unveil the underlying mechanisms that…

Atmospheric blockings are persistent large-scale climate patterns with duration between days and weeks. In principle, blockings might involve a large number of modes interacting non-linearly, and a conclusive description for their onset and…

Unstable Periodic Orbits (UPOs) were used to identify regimes, and transitions between regimes, in a reduced-order coupled atmosphere-land spectral model. In this paper we describe how the chaotic attractor of this model was clustered using…

A single-column model is used to investigate regime transitions within the stable atmospheric boundary layer, focusing on the role of small-scale fluctuations in wind and temperature dynamics and of turbulence intermittency as triggers for…

Atmospheric blocking exerts a profound influence on mid-latitude circulation, yet its predictability remains elusive due to intrinsic non-linearities and sensitivity to initial-conditions. While blocking dynamics have been extensively…

Many natural systems undergo critical transitions, i.e. sudden shifts from one dynamical regime to another. In the climate system, the atmospheric boundary layer can experience sudden transitions between fully turbulent states and…

Atmospheric blocking events are quasi-stationary high-pressure systems that disrupt the typical paths of polar and subtropical air currents, often producing prolonged extreme weather events such as summer heat waves or winter cold spells.…

The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…

We investigate how night side cooling and surface friction impact surface temperatures and large scale circulation for tidally locked Earth-like planets. For each scenario, we vary the orbital period between $P_{rot}=1-100$~days and capture…

We describe benchmark experiments to evaluate the frictional properties of laser patterned low-density polyethylene as a function of sliding velocity, normal force and humidity. The pattern is a square lattice of square cavities with sub-mm…

In a low-order model of the general circulation of the atmosphere we examine the predictability of threshold exceedance events of certain observables. The likelihood of such binary events -- the cornerstone also for the categoric (as…

The effect caused by the presence of a number of distinct time scales in a simple stochastic model for the Earth's atmosphere temperature fluctuations is studied. The model is described by a dissipative dynamics consisting of a set of…