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Patients in clinical studies often exhibit heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE). Classical subgroup analyses provide inferential tools to test for effect modification, while modern machine learning methods estimate the Conditional Average…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-01-05 Nan Miles Xi , Xin Huang , Lin Wang

Learning heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) is an important problem across many fields. Most existing methods consider the setting with a single treatment arm and a single outcome metric. However, in many real world domains, experiments…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-06-13 Leon Yao , Caroline Lo , Israel Nir , Sarah Tan , Ariel Evnine , Adam Lerer , Alex Peysakhovich

We propose a novel multi-task neural network approach for estimating distributional treatment effects (DTE) in randomized experiments. While DTE provides more granular insights into the experiment outcomes over conventional methods focusing…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-11 Tomu Hirata , Undral Byambadalai , Tatsushi Oka , Shota Yasui , Shingo Uto

To test scientific theories and develop individualized treatment rules, researchers often wish to learn heterogeneous treatment effects that can be consistently found across diverse populations and contexts. We consider the problem of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-01 Yi Zhang , Melody Huang , Kosuke Imai

Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are ideal for estimating causal effects, because the distributions of background covariates are similar in expectation across treatment groups. When estimating causal effects using observational data,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-02-27 Anthony D. Scotina , Roee Gutman

Randomized controlled experiment has long been accepted as the golden standard for establishing causal link and estimating causal effect in various scientific fields. Average treatment effect is often used to summarize the effect…

应用统计 · 统计学 2016-10-14 Alex Deng , Pengchuan Zhang , Shouyuan Chen , Dong Woo Kim , Jiannan Lu

Methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effect in observational data have largely focused on continuous or binary outcomes, and have been relatively less vetted with survival outcomes. Using flexible machine learning methods in the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-07-09 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Fan Li

Random forest (RF) stands out as a highly favored machine learning approach for classification problems. The effectiveness of RF hinges on two key factors: the accuracy of individual trees and the diversity among them. In this study, we…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-28 Ye-eun Kim , Seoung Yun Kim , Hyunjoong Kim

Matching is one of the simplest approaches for estimating causal effects from observational data. Matching techniques compare the observed outcomes across pairs of individuals with similar covariate values but different treatment statuses…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-09-23 Abhishek Dalvi , Neil Ashtekar , Vasant Honavar

Off-policy policy evaluation methods for sequential decision making can be used to help identify if a proposed decision policy is better than a current baseline policy. However, a new decision policy may be better than a baseline policy for…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-11-30 Ramtin Keramati , Omer Gottesman , Leo Anthony Celi , Finale Doshi-Velez , Emma Brunskill

Epidemiologists and applied statisticians often believe that relative effect measures conditional on covariates, such as risk ratios and mean ratios, are ``transportable'' across populations. Here, we examine the identification of causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-24 Issa J. Dahabreh , Sarah E. Robertson , Jon A. Steingrimsson

We study the problem of inferring heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) from time-to-event data in the presence of competing events. Albeit its great practical relevance, this problem has received little attention compared to its…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-27 Alicia Curth , Mihaela van der Schaar

A very classical problem in statistics is to test the stochastic superiority of one distribution to another. However, many existing approaches are developed for independent samples and, moreover, do not take censored data into account. We…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-19 Dennis Dobler , Kathrin Möllenhoff

We apply causal forests to a dataset derived from the National Study of Learning Mindsets, and consider resulting practical and conceptual challenges. In particular, we discuss how causal forests use estimated propensity scores to be more…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-02-21 Susan Athey , Stefan Wager

Cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) are widely used to evaluate interventions delivered at the clinic, practice, or community level. Although standard analyses typically target average treatment effects, such summaries mask potentially…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-16 Changjun Li , Xi Fang , Michael O. Harhay , Andrew B. Forbes , F. Perry Wilson , Guangyu Tong , Fan Li

In randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of infectious disease interventions, it is well recognized that unmeasured individual heterogeneity at baseline can induce selection bias over time, thereby complicating the interpretation of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-24 Hiroyasu Ando , A. James O'Malley , Akihiro Nishi

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-25 Connor T. Jerzak , Ritwik Vashistha , Adel Daoud

Heterogeneous treatment effects, which vary according to individual covariates, are crucial in fields such as personalized medicine and tailored treatment strategies. In many applications, rather than considering the heterogeneity induced…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-26 Peng Wu , Pengtao Zeng , Zhaoqing Tian , Shaojie Wei

There is an increasing interest in estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in randomized and observational studies. However, little research has been conducted to understand heterogeneity in an instrumental variables study. In this work,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-01-20 Michael Johnson , Jiongyi Cao , Hyunseung Kang

We present new insights into causal inference in the context of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects by proposing natural variants of Random Forests to estimate the key conditional distributions. To achieve this, we recast Breiman's original…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-02-16 Qiming Du , Gérard Biau , François Petit , Raphaël Porcher