相关论文: A Comprehensive Survey on Rare Event Prediction

Quantifying and predicting rare and extreme events persists as a crucial yet challenging task in understanding complex dynamical systems. Many practical challenges arise from the infrequency and severity of these events, including the…

In this modern technological era, categorization and ranking of research journals is gaining popularity among researchers and scientists. It plays a significant role for publication of their research findings in a quality journal. Although,…

Machine learning (ML) has recently shown promising results in medical predictions using electronic health records (EHRs). However, since ML models typically have a limited capability in terms of input sizes, selecting specific medical…

Predictive Process Monitoring is a branch of process mining that aims to predict the outcome of an ongoing process. Recently, it leveraged machine-and-deep learning architectures. In this paper, we extend our prior LLM-based Predictive…

Machine learning models have prevalent applications in many real-world problems, which increases the importance of correctness in the behaviour of these trained models. Finding a good test case that can reveal the potential failure in these…

An overview of rare events algorithms based on large deviation theory (LDT) is presented. It covers a range of numerical schemes to compute the large deviation minimizer in various setups, and discusses best practices, common pitfalls, and…

The probability of rare and extreme events is an important quantity for design purposes. However, computing the probability of rare events can be expensive because only a few events, if any, can be observed. To this end, it is necessary to…

The efficient calculation of rare-event kinetics in complex dynamical systems, such as the rate and pathways of ligand dissociation from a protein, is a generally unsolved problem. Markov state models can systematically integrate ensembles…

A rare event is defined by a low probability of occurrence. Accurate estimation of such small probabilities is of utmost importance across diverse domains. Conventional Monte Carlo methods are inefficient, demanding an exorbitant number of…

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on…

Accurate cyclone forecasting is essential for minimizing loss of life, infrastructure damage, and economic disruption. Traditional numerical weather prediction models, though effective, are computationally intensive and prone to error due…

In this work we propose an adaptive multilevel version of subset simulation to estimate the probability of rare events for complex physical systems. Given a sequence of nested failure domains of increasing size, the rare event probability…

The explosion of digital data has created multiple opportunities for organizations and individuals to leverage machine learning (ML) to transform the way they operate. However, the shortage of experts in the field of machine learning --…

For any business, planning is a continuous process, and typically business-owners focus on making both long-term planning aligned with a particular strategy as well as short-term planning that accommodates the dynamic market situations. An…

The estimation of the probability of rare events is an important task in reliability and risk assessment. We consider failure events that are expressed in terms of a limit-state function, which depends on the solution of a partial…

Large-scale rare events data are commonly encountered in practice. To tackle the massive rare events data, we propose a novel distributed estimation method for logistic regression in a distributed system. For a distributed framework, we…

Most existing time-to-event methods focus on either single-event or competing-risks settings, leaving multi-event scenarios relatively underexplored. In many healthcare applications, for example, a patient may experience multiple clinical…

Computing the return times of extreme events and assessing the impact of climate change on such return times is fundamental to extreme event attribution studies. However, the rarity of such events in the observational record makes this task…

Predictive process monitoring is a subfield of process mining that aims to estimate case or event features for running process instances. Such predictions are of significant interest to the process stakeholders. However, state-of-the-art…

Extreme events, such as rogue waves, earthquakes and stock market crashes, occur spontaneously in many dynamical systems. Because of their usually adverse consequences, quantification, prediction and mitigation of extreme events are highly…