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This article presents an algorithm that generates a conservative confidence interval of a specified length and coverage probability for the power of a Monte Carlo test (such as a bootstrap or permutation test). It is the first method that…

统计计算 · 统计学 2013-03-13 Axel Gandy , Patrick Rubin-Delanchy

An important issue when using Machine Learning algorithms in recent research is the lack of interpretability. Although these algorithms provide accurate point predictions for various learning problems, uncertainty estimates connected with…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-03-11 Burim Ramosaj

Rejection Sampling is a fundamental Monte-Carlo method. It is used to sample from distributions admitting a probability density function which can be evaluated exactly at any given point, albeit at a high computational cost. However,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-10-23 Juliette Achdou , Joseph C. Lam , Alexandra Carpentier , Gilles Blanchard

Training Large Language Models (LLMs) for chain-of-thought reasoning presents a significant challenge: supervised fine-tuning on a single "golden" rationale hurts generalization as it penalizes equally valid alternatives, whereas…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-11-14 Mingye Zhu , Yi Liu , Zheren Fu , Quan Wang , Yongdong Zhang

Robust reinforcement learning (RL) aims to find a policy that optimizes the worst-case performance in the face of uncertainties. In this paper, we focus on action robust RL with the probabilistic policy execution uncertainty, in which,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-07-21 Guanlin Liu , Zhihan Zhou , Han Liu , Lifeng Lai

In this article we develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo estimation. In particular, the method can be used to estimate expectations with respect to a target probability distribution over an…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-03-16 Alexandros Beskos , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Youssef Marzouk , Yan Zhou

Linear regression with normally distributed errors - including particular cases such as ANOVA, Student's t-test or location-scale inference - is a widely used statistical procedure. In this case the ordinary least squares estimator…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-09-18 Alain Desgagné

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods can be used to sample from posterior distributions when the likelihood function is unavailable or intractable, as is often the case in biological systems. ABC methods suffer from inefficient…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-12-03 Charlie Rogers-Smith , Henri Pesonen , Samuel Kaski

Standard machine learning models optimized for average performance often fail on minority subgroups and lack robustness to distribution shifts. This challenge worsens when subgroups are latent and affected by complex interactions among…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-09-23 Siqi Li , Molei Liu , Ziye Tian , Chuan Hong , Nan Liu

Models implicitly defined through a random simulator of a process have become widely used in scientific and industrial applications in recent years. However, simulation-based inference methods for such implicit models, like approximate…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-17 Joonha Park

We present the official release of the EFfective Field theORy surrogaTe (Effort), a novel and efficient emulator designed for the Effective Field Theory of Large-Scale Structure (EFTofLSS). This tool combines state-of-the-art numerical…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2025-01-09 Marco Bonici , Guido D'Amico , Julien Bel , Carmelita Carbone

As the size of engineered systems grows, problems in reliability theory can become computationally challenging, often due to the combinatorial growth in the cut sets. In this paper we demonstrate how Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) - a…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-03-14 Louis J. M. Aslett , Tigran Nagapetyan , Sebastian J. Vollmer

Elliptical slice sampling, when adapted to linearly truncated multivariate normal distributions, is a rejection-free Markov chain Monte Carlo method. At its core, it requires analytically constructing an ellipse-polytope intersection. The…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-16 Kaiwen Wu , Jacob R. Gardner

Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) and its stochastic gradient versions are powerful algorithms for sampling from complex high-dimensional distributions. To sample from a distribution with density $\pi(\theta)\propto \exp(-U(\theta)) $, LMC…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-09-25 Sifan Liu

The dependence of Natural Language Processing (NLP) intelligent software on Large Language Models (LLMs) is increasingly prominent, underscoring the necessity for robustness testing. Current testing methods focus solely on the robustness of…

软件工程 · 计算机科学 2024-02-22 Mingxuan Xiao , Yan Xiao , Hai Dong , Shunhui Ji , Pengcheng Zhang

Large reasoning models (LRMs) have achieved remarkable progress in complex problem-solving tasks. Despite this success, LRMs typically suffer from high computational costs during deployment, highlighting a need for efficient inference. A…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-02-02 Hao Zeng , Jianguo Huang , Bingyi Jing , Hongxin Wei , Bo An

Robust estimation is primarily concerned with providing reliable parameter estimates in the presence of outliers. Numerous robust loss functions have been proposed in regression and classification, along with various computing algorithms.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-02-26 Zhu Wang

Utility based methods provide a very general theoretically consistent approach to pricing and hedging of securities in incomplete financial markets. Solving problems in the utility based framework typically involves dynamic programming,…

概率论 · 数学 2008-12-10 M. R. Grasselli , T. R. Hurd

Large language models (LLMs) often generate code that is functionally correct but inefficient in runtime and memory. Prior approaches to improving code efficiency typically rely on absolute execution feedback, such as profiling a single…

编程语言 · 计算机科学 2026-04-08 Samira Hajizadeh , Suman Jana

Process Reward Models (PRMs) emerge as a promising approach for process supervision in mathematical reasoning of Large Language Models (LLMs), which aim to identify and mitigate intermediate errors in the reasoning processes. However, the…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-06-06 Zhenru Zhang , Chujie Zheng , Yangzhen Wu , Beichen Zhang , Runji Lin , Bowen Yu , Dayiheng Liu , Jingren Zhou , Junyang Lin
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