相关论文: A basket trial design based on power priors

Data sets for statistical analysis become extremely large even with some difficulty of being stored on one single machine. Even when the data can be stored in one machine, the computational cost would still be intimidating. We propose a…

In this paper we use Bernstein and Chebyshev polynomials to approximate the price of some basket options under a bivariate Black-Scholes model. The method consists in expanding the price of a univariate related contract after conditioning…

Hierarchical beta process has found interesting applications in recent years. In this paper we present a modified hierarchical beta process prior with applications to hierarchical modeling of multiple data sources. The novel use of the…

The use of hierarchical mixture priors with shared atoms has recently flourished in the Bayesian literature for partially exchangeable data. Leveraging on nested levels of mixtures, these models allow the estimation of a two-layered data…

We establish concentration rates for estimation of treatment effects in experiments that incorporate prior sources of information -- such as past pilots, related studies, or expert assessments -- whose external validity is uncertain. Each…

A 'Winner's Curse' arises in large-scale online experimentation platforms when the same experiments are used to both select treatments and evaluate their effects. In these settings, classical difference-in-means estimators of treatment…

Probabilistic neural networks are typically modeled with independent weight priors, which do not capture weight correlations in the prior and do not provide a parsimonious interface to express properties in function space. A desirable class…

Bayesian experimental design is a technique that allows to efficiently select measurements to characterize a physical system by maximizing the expected information gain. Recent developments in deep neural networks and normalizing flows…

Most computational approaches to Bayesian experimental design require making posterior calculations repeatedly for a large number of potential designs and/or simulated datasets. This can be expensive and prohibit scaling up these methods to…

This paper develops a data-driven approach to Bayesian persuasion. The receiver is privately informed about the prior distribution of the state of the world, the sender knows the receiver's preferences but does not know the distribution of…

Group sequential designs drive innovation in clinical, industrial, and corporate settings. Early stopping for failure in sequential designs conserves experimental resources, whereas early stopping for success accelerates access to improved…

We propose a measure of the impact of any two choices of prior distributions by quantifying the Wasserstein distance between the respective resulting posterior distributions at any fixed sample size. We illustrate this measure on the…

The prior distribution is a crucial building block in Bayesian analysis, and its choice will impact the subsequent inference. It is therefore important to have a convenient way to quantify this impact, as such a measure of prior impact will…

Randomized controlled experiments assess new policy impacts on performance metrics to inform launch decisions. Traditional approaches evaluate metrics independently despite correlations, and mixed results (e.g., positive revenue impact,…

This article discusses D-optimal Bayesian crossover designs for generalized linear models. Crossover trials with t treatments and p periods, for $t <= p$, are considered. The designs proposed in this paper minimize the log determinant of…

Bayesian inference is used extensively to quantify the uncertainty in an inferred field given the measurement of a related field when the two are linked by a mathematical model. Despite its many applications, Bayesian inference faces…

Determination of posterior probability for go-no-go decision and predictive power are becoming increasingly common for resource optimization in clinical investigation. There are vast published literature on these topics; however, the…

Physics-based battery modelling has emerged to accelerate battery materials discovery and performance assessment. Its success, however, is still hindered by difficulties in aligning models to experimental data. Bayesian approaches are a…

In the design of clinical trials, it is essential to assess the design operating characteristics (e.g., power and the type I error rate). Common practice for the evaluation of operating characteristics in Bayesian clinical trials relies on…

Bayesian inference affords scientists with powerful tools for testing hypotheses. One of these tools is the Bayes factor, which indexes the extent to which support for one hypothesis over another is updated after seeing the data. Part of…