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Calibrating deep neural models plays an important role in building reliable, robust AI systems in safety-critical applications. Recent work has shown that modern neural networks that possess high predictive capability are poorly calibrated…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-16 Cheng Wang

Uncertainty estimates must be calibrated (i.e., accurate) and sharp (i.e., informative) in order to be useful. This has motivated a variety of methods for recalibration, which use held-out data to turn an uncalibrated model into a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-07-06 Charles Marx , Shengjia Zhao , Willie Neiswanger , Stefano Ermon

Since neural classifiers are known to be sensitive to adversarial perturbations that alter their accuracy, \textit{certification methods} have been developed to provide provable guarantees on the insensitivity of their predictions to such…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-26 Cornelius Emde , Francesco Pinto , Thomas Lukasiewicz , Philip H. S. Torr , Adel Bibi

Firms typically cannot observe key consumer actions: whether customers buy from a competitor, choose not to buy, or even fully consider the firm's offer. This missing outside-option information makes market-size and preference estimation…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-16 Jiangkai Xiong , Kalyan Talluri , Hanzhao Wang

Neural networks are often overconfident about their predictions, which undermines their reliability and trustworthiness. In this work, we present a novel technique, named Error-Driven Uncertainty Aware Training (EUAT), which aims to enhance…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-09-12 Pedro Mendes , Paolo Romano , David Garlan

As machine learning models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes environments, ensuring both probabilistic reliability and prediction stability has become critical. This paper examines the interplay between classification calibration and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-17 Mustafa Cavus

Optimal decision making requires that classifiers produce uncertainty estimates consistent with their empirical accuracy. However, deep neural networks are often under- or over-confident in their predictions. Consequently, methods have been…

We present a conformal inference method for constructing lower prediction bounds for survival times from right-censored data, extending recent approaches designed for more restrictive type-I censoring scenarios. The proposed method imputes…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-26 Matteo Sesia , Vladimir Svetnik

It is generally accepted that all models are wrong -- the difficulty is determining which are useful. Here, a useful model is considered as one that is capable of combining data and expert knowledge, through an inversion or calibration…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-03-22 George M. Mathews , John Vial

Model compression techniques allow to significantly reduce the computational cost associated with data processing by deep neural networks with only a minor decrease in average accuracy. Simultaneously, reducing the model size may have a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-09-28 Sebastian Cygert , Andrzej Czyżewski

The proliferation and variety of Internet of Things devices means that they have increasingly become a viable target for malicious users. This has created a need for anomaly detection algorithms that can work across multiple devices. This…

密码学与安全 · 计算机科学 2022-05-10 Lincoln Best , Ernest Foo , Hui Tian

Under-coverage and nonresponse problems are jointly present in most socio-economic surveys. The purpose of this paper is to propose a completely design-based estimation strategy that accounts for both problems without resorting to models…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-05-10 Maria Michela Dickson , Giuseppe Espa , Lorenzo Fattorini

Machine learning classifiers often produce probabilistic predictions that are critical for accurate and interpretable decision-making in various domains. The quality of these predictions is generally evaluated with proper losses, such as…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-26 Eugène Berta , David Holzmüller , Michael I. Jordan , Francis Bach

A key challenge in probabilistic regression is ensuring that predictive distributions accurately reflect true empirical uncertainty. Minimizing overall prediction error often encourages models to prioritize informativeness over calibration,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-02-17 Ádám Jung , Domokos M. Kelen , András A. Benczúr

Calibration error is commonly adopted for evaluating the quality of uncertainty estimators in deep neural networks. In this paper, we argue that such a metric is highly beneficial for training predictive models, even when we do not…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-11-01 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Deepta Rajan

In machine learning, model calibration and predictive inference are essential for producing reliable predictions and quantifying uncertainty to support decision-making. Recognizing the complementary roles of point and interval predictions,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-11-01 Lars van der Laan , Ahmed M. Alaa

Specular reflections pose a significant challenge for object segmentation, as their sharp intensity transitions often mislead both conventional algorithms and deep learning based methods. However, as the specular reflection must lie on the…

图像与视频处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2026-02-26 Katja Kossira , Yunxuan Zhu , Jürgen Seiler , André Kaup

Visual-Inertial (VI) sensors are popular in robotics, self-driving vehicles, and augmented and virtual reality applications. In order to use them for any computer vision or state-estimation task, a good calibration is essential. However,…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2023-09-27 Christopher L. Choi , Binbin Xu , Stefan Leutenegger

Machine learning approaches for image classification have led to impressive advances in that field. For example, convolutional neural networks are able to achieve remarkable image classification accuracy across a wide range of applications…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-10-30 Christopher T. Franck , Anne R. Driscoll , Zoe Szajnfarber , William H. Woodall

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have enabled astounding progress in several vision-based problems. Despite showing high predictive accuracy, recently, several works have revealed that they tend to provide overconfident predictions and thus are…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2023-03-28 Muhammad Akhtar Munir , Muhammad Haris Khan , Salman Khan , Fahad Shahbaz Khan