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We study how to efficiently estimate average treatment effects (ATEs) using adaptive experiments. In adaptive experiments, experimenters sequentially assign treatments to experimental units while updating treatment assignment probabilities…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-02-21 Masahiro Kato , Takuya Ishihara , Junya Honda , Yusuke Narita

Gradient-based methods for optimisation of objectives in stochastic settings with unknown or intractable dynamics require estimators of derivatives. We derive an objective that, under automatic differentiation, produces low-variance…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-09-25 Gregory Farquhar , Shimon Whiteson , Jakob Foerster

Generalizing causal estimates in randomized experiments to a broader target population is essential for guiding decisions by policymakers and practitioners in the social and biomedical sciences. While recent papers developed various…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-11-03 Melody Huang , Naoki Egami , Erin Hartman , Luke Miratrix

We consider the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) when both randomized control trial (RCT) data and external real-world data (RWD) are available. We decompose the ATE estimand as the difference between a pooled-ATE…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-22 Mark van der Laan , Sky Qiu , Jens Magelund Tarp , Lars van der Laan

In this article, we study nonparametric inference for a covariate-adjusted regression function. This parameter captures the average association between a continuous exposure and an outcome after adjusting for other covariates. In…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-12-18 Kenta Takatsu , Ted Westling

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is important to tailor treatments to those individuals who would most likely benefit. However, conditional average treatment effect predictors may often be trained on one population but possibly…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-18 Christoph Kern , Michael Kim , Angela Zhou

We consider estimation of a linear functional of the treatment effect using adaptively collected data. This task finds a variety of applications including the off-policy evaluation (\textsf{OPE}) in contextual bandits, and estimation of the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-11-21 Jeonghwan Lee , Cong Ma

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are a mathematical model used in many application areas such as climatology, bioinformatics, and chemical engineering with its intuitive appeal to modeling. Despite ODE's wide usage in modeling, the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-08-10 Hyunjoo Yang , Jaeyong Lee

We introduce the Differentiable Weightless Neural Network (DWN), a model based on interconnected lookup tables. Training of DWNs is enabled by a novel Extended Finite Difference technique for approximate differentiation of binary values. We…

This paper introduces tools for assessing the sensitivity, to unobserved confounding, of a common estimator of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome that employs weights: the weighted linear regression of the outcome on the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-06 Leonard Wainstein , Chad Hazlett

The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a popular model for density estimation and representation learning. Canonically, the variational principle suggests to prefer an expressive inference model so that the variational approximation is…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-01-10 Rui Shu , Hung H. Bui , Shengjia Zhao , Mykel J. Kochenderfer , Stefano Ermon

We present Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimation (NADE) models, which are neural network architectures applied to the problem of unsupervised distribution and density estimation. They leverage the probability product rule and a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2016-05-30 Benigno Uria , Marc-Alexandre Côté , Karol Gregor , Iain Murray , Hugo Larochelle

Estimating covariance matrix from massive high-dimensional and distributed data is significant for various real-world applications. In this paper, we propose a data-aware weighted sampling based covariance matrix estimator, namely DACE,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-10-13 Xixian Chen , Haiqin Yang , Shenglin Zhao , Michael R. Lyu , Irwin King

Recent advances in deep learning have achieved impressive gains in classification accuracy on a variety of types of data, including images and text. Despite these gains, however, concerns have been raised about the calibration, robustness,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-11-20 Dallas Card , Michael Zhang , Noah A. Smith

This paper presents a weighted optimization framework that unifies the binary,multi-valued, continuous, as well as mixture of discrete and continuous treatment, under the unconfounded treatment assignment. With a general loss function, the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2018-08-20 Chunrong Ai , Oliver Linton , Kaiji Motegi , Zheng Zhang

In randomized clinical trials, adjusting for baseline covariates can improve credibility and efficiency for demonstrating and quantifying treatment effects. This article studies the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-27 Marlena S. Bannick , Jun Shao , Jingyi Liu , Yu Du , Yanyao Yi , Ting Ye

This paper studies nonparametric identification and estimation of causal effects in centralized school assignment. In many centralized assignment algorithms, students face both lottery-driven variation and regression discontinuity- (RD)…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-12-30 Jiafeng Chen

Controlled Direct Effect (CDE) is one of the causal estimands used to evaluate both exposure and mediation effects on an outcome. When there are unmeasured confounders existing between the mediator and the outcome, the ordinary…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-30 Shunichiro Orihara , Shinpei Imori , Kosuke Morikawa , Atsushi Goto , Masataka Taguri

This paper considers estimation and inference for a weighted average derivative (WAD) of a nonparametric quantile instrumental variables regression (NPQIV). NPQIV is a non-separable and nonlinear ill-posed inverse problem, which might be…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-02-27 Xiaohong Chen , Demian Pouzo , James L. Powell

Consider a set of agents that wish to estimate a vector of parameters of their mutual interest. For this estimation goal, agents can sense and communicate. When sensing, an agent measures (in additive gaussian noise) linear combinations of…

系统与控制 · 计算机科学 2019-03-27 António Simões , João Xavier