相关论文: The Beginning of the Trend: Interest Rates, Profit…

How much has market power increased in the United States in the last fifty years? And how did the rise in market power affect aggregate profits? Using micro-level data from U.S. Compustat, we find that several indicators of market power…

Recent research has documented a significant rise in the volatility (e.g., expected squared change) of individual incomes in the U.S. since the 1970s. Existing measures of this trend abstract from individual heterogeneity, effectively…

Research has shown banks match interest income and expense betas, and thereby obtain net interest income margins which are insensitive to changes in short-term interest rates. The present analysis extends this research in a number of ways.…

At the outbreak of the recent inflation surge, the public's attention to inflation was low but increased quickly once inflation started to rise. In this paper, I quantify when and by how much the public's attention to inflation changes, and…

We show that public firm profit rates fell by half since 1980. Inferred as the residual from the rise of US corporate profit rates in aggregate data, private firm profit rates doubled since 1980. Public firm financial returns matched their…

We have modeled the employment/population ratio in the largest developed countries. Our results show that the evolution of the employment rate since 1970 can be predicted with a high accuracy by a linear dependence on the logarithm of real…

This paper analyzes several interest rates time series from the United Kingdom during the period 1999 to 2014. The analysis is carried out using a pioneering statistical tool in the financial literature: the complexity-entropy causality…

The personal income distribution (PID) above the Pareto threshold is studied and modeled. A microeconomic model is proposed to simulate the PID and its evolution below and above the Pareto income threshold. The model balances processes of…

An empirical analysis of interest rates in money and capital markets is performed. We investigate a set of 34 different weekly interest rate time series during a time period of 16 years between 1982 and 1997. Our study is focused on the…

We present empirical evidence on the relationship between demand shocks and price changes, conditional on returns to scale. We find that in industries with decreasing returns to scale, demand increases (which raise costs) correspond to…

We analyze and develop a quantitative model describing the evolution of personal income distribution, PID, for males and females in the U.S. between 1930 and 2014. The overall microeconomic model, which we introduced ten years ago,…

We document the rise of negative earnings between 1980 and 2019: a secular increase in the percent of firms reporting losses, both among public firms and in the broader universe of US corporations, and a secular increase in the persistence…

Assessing the contribution of various risk factors to future inflation risks was crucial for guiding monetary policy during the recent high inflation period. However, existing methodologies often provide limited insights by focusing solely…

Monthly disaggregated US data from 1978 to 2016 reveals that exposure to news on inflation and monetary policy helps to explain inflation expectations. This remains true when controlling for household personal characteristics, perceptions…

This paper addresses the structure and dynamics of an open market economy and its relations with the real interest rate. In this respect, the paper is situated within a broad conventional literature. However, it departs from the standard…

Using CPS data for 1976 to 2022 we explore how wage inequality has evolved for married couples with both spouses working full time full year, and its impact on household income inequality. We also investigate how marriage sorting patterns…

Recent research has documented a reversal from divergence to convergence in income levels between rich and poor countries after 2000. This paper employs a growth accounting framework to investigate the proximate sources of convergence over…

This paper presents empirical evidence using recently developed techniques in econophysics suggesting that the degree of long-range dependence in interest rates depends on the conduct of monetary policy. We study the term structure of…

Methods for detecting structural changes, or change points, in time series data are widely used in many fields of science and engineering. This chapter sketches some basic methods for the analysis of structural changes in time series data.…

I introduce a new way of decomposing the evolution of the wealth distribution using a simple continuous time stochastic model, which separates the effects of mobility, savings, labor income, rates of return, demography, inheritance, and…