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Causal inference on time series data is a challenging problem, especially in the presence of unobserved confounders. This work focuses on estimating the causal effect between two time series that are confounded by a third, unobserved time…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-11-19 Felix Schur , Jonas Peters

Learning algorithms are often used in conjunction with expert decision makers in practical scenarios, however this fact is largely ignored when designing these algorithms. In this paper we explore how to learn predictors that can either…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-01-26 Hussein Mozannar , David Sontag

Cross-situational word learning is based on the notion that a learner can determine the referent of a word by finding something in common across many observed uses of that word. Here we propose an adaptive learning algorithm that contains a…

神经元与认知 · 定量生物学 2013-11-20 Paulo F. C. Tilles , Jose F. Fontanari

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification via prediction sets with exact finite-sample coverage. In low dimensions these sets are easy to interpret, but in high-dimensional or structured…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-08 Trevor Harris

While modern multivariate forecasters such as Transformers and GNNs achieve strong benchmark performance, they often suffer from systematic errors at specific variables or horizons and, critically, lack guarantees against performance…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-05 Jianxiang Xie , Yuncheng Hua , Mingyue Cheng , Flora Salim , Hao Xue

Adequately assigning credit to actions for future outcomes based on their contributions is a long-standing open challenge in Reinforcement Learning. The assumptions of the most commonly used credit assignment method are disadvantageous in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-05-18 Mátyás Schubert

Causal discovery aims to learn causal relationships between variables from targeted data, making it a fundamental task in machine learning. However, causal discovery algorithms often rely on unverifiable causal assumptions, which are…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-15 Huiyang Yi , Yanyan He , Duxin Chen , Mingyu Kang , He Wang , Wenwu Yu

We give a finite-sample analysis of predictive inference procedures after model selection in regression with random design. The analysis is focused on a statistically challenging scenario where the number of potentially important…

统计理论 · 数学 2009-08-26 Hannes Leeb

Imitation Learning offers a promising approach to learn directly from data without requiring explicit models, simulations, or detailed task definitions. During inference, actions are sampled from the learned distribution and executed on the…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2025-10-28 Amirreza Razmjoo , Sylvain Calinon , Michael Gienger , Fan Zhang

Causal discovery procedures aim to deduce causal relationships among variables in a multivariate dataset. While various methods have been proposed for estimating a single causal model or a single equivalence class of models, less attention…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-08 Y. Samuel Wang , Mladen Kolar , Mathias Drton

Although deep feedforward neural networks share some characteristics with the primate visual system, a key distinction is their dynamics. Deep nets typically operate in serial stages wherein each layer completes its computation before…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-11-03 Michael L. Iuzzolino , Michael C. Mozer , Samy Bengio

In the classical multi-armed bandit problem, instance-dependent algorithms attain improved performance on "easy" problems with a gap between the best and second-best arm. Are similar guarantees possible for contextual bandits? While…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-10-08 Dylan J. Foster , Alexander Rakhlin , David Simchi-Levi , Yunzong Xu

Decentralized learning offers a promising approach to crowdsource data consumptions and computational workloads across geographically distributed compute interconnected through peer-to-peer networks, accommodating the exponentially…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-10 Tongtian Zhu , Wenhao Li , Can Wang , Fengxiang He

Causal Transformers are trained to predict the next token for a given context. While it is widely accepted that self-attention is crucial for encoding the causal structure of sequences, the precise underlying mechanism behind this…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-03-04 Michael E. Sander , Gabriel Peyré

Backdoor attacks are among the most effective, practical, and stealthy attacks in deep learning. In this paper, we consider a practical scenario where a developer obtains a deep model from a third party and uses it as part of a…

密码学与安全 · 计算机科学 2025-03-28 Dorde Popovic , Amin Sadeghi , Ting Yu , Sanjay Chawla , Issa Khalil

Causal discovery and causal effect estimation are two fundamental tasks in causal inference. While many methods have been developed for each task individually, statistical challenges arise when applying these methods jointly: estimating…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-08-21 Paula Gradu , Tijana Zrnic , Yixin Wang , Michael I. Jordan

Existing Learning-to-Defer (L2D) frameworks are limited to single-expert deferral, forcing each query to rely on only one expert and preventing the use of collective expertise. We introduce the first framework for Top-$k$ Learning-to-Defer,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-29 Yannis Montreuil , Axel Carlier , Lai Xing Ng , Wei Tsang Ooi

Several previous works concluded that the largest part of generation capabilities of large language models (LLM) are learned (early) during pre-training. However, LLMs still require further alignment to adhere to downstream task…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2026-01-27 Ayoub Hammal , Pierre Zweigenbaum , Caio Corro

The decision tree is one of the most popular and classical machine learning models from the 1980s. However, in many practical applications, decision trees tend to generate decision paths with excessive depth. Long decision paths often cause…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-11-30 Jialu Zhang , Yitan Wang , Mark Santolucito , Ruzica Piskac

We consider training a binary classifier under delayed feedback (\emph{DF learning}). For example, in the conversion prediction in online ads, we initially receive negative samples that clicked the ads but did not buy an item; subsequently,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-06-13 Masahiro Kato , Shota Yasui