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Surface solar irradiance (SSI) plays a crucial role in tackling climate change - as an abundant, non-fossil energy source, exploited primarily via photovoltaic (PV) energy production. With the growing contribution of SSI to total energy…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2023-12-20 Alberto Carpentieri , Doris Folini , Jussi Leinonen , Angela Meyer

Understanding the dynamics of climate extreme is important in its prediction and modeling. In this study, linear trends in percentile, threshold, absolute, and duration based temperature and precipitation extremes indicator were obtained…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2019-09-09 Ibiyinka Fuwape , Sunday Oluyamo , Babatunde Rabiu , Samuel Ogunjo

Extreme weather events, such as severe storms, hurricanes, snowstorms, and ice storms, which are exacerbated by climate change, frequently cause widespread power outages. These outages halt industrial operations, impact communities, damage…

This paper introduces a generalised version of importance subsampling for time series reduction/aggregation in optimisation-based power system planning models. Recent studies indicate that reliably determining optimal electricity…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-08-26 Adriaan P Hilbers , David J Brayshaw , Axel Gandy

We focus on day-ahead electricity load forecasting of substations of the distribution network in France; therefore, our problem lies between the instability of a single consumption and the stability of a countrywide total demand. Moreover,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-02-17 Guillaume Lambert , Bachir Hamrouche , Joseph de Vilmarest

Electrification of transport compounded with climate change will transform hourly load profiles and their response to weather. Power system operators and EV charging stakeholders require such high-resolution load profiles for their planning…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-03-08 Samrat Acharya , Malini Ghosal , Travis Thurber , Casey D. Burleyson , Yang Ou , Allison Campbell , Gokul Iyer , Nathalie Voisin , Jason Fuller

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is increasingly required in computational economics, where machine-learning forecasters can outperform classical econometric models but remain difficult to audit and use for policy. This survey…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2025-12-16 Agustín García-García , Pablo Hidalgo , Julio E. Sandubete

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for the reliable and economic operation of power systems. Though many STLF methods were proposed over the past decades, most of them focused on loads at high aggregation levels only. Thus,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-03-27 Yayu Peng , Yishen Wang , Xiao Lu , Haifeng Li , Di Shi , Zhiwei Wang , Jie Li

Machine learning models with both good predictability and high interpretability are crucial for decision support systems. Linear regression is one of the most interpretable prediction models. However, the linearity in a simple linear…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-04-29 Lkhagvadorj Munkhdalai , Tsendsuren Munkhdalai , Keun Ho Ryu

By significant improvements in modern electrical systems, planning for unit commitment and power dispatching of them are two big concerns between the researchers. Short-term load forecasting plays a significant role in planning and…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2020-10-01 Kasun Chandrarathna , Arman Edalati , AhmadReza Fourozan tabar

Energy forecasting has a vital role to play in smart grid (SG) systems involving various applications such as demand-side management, load shedding, and optimum dispatch. Managing efficient forecasting while ensuring the least possible…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-25 Devinder Kaur , Shama Naz Islam , Md. Apel Mahmud , Md. Enamul Haque , ZhaoYang Dong

The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2026-01-06 Louise Largeau , Tom Beucler , David Leutwyler , Gregoire Mariethoz , Valerie Chavez-Demoulin , Erwan Koch

Delay embedding---a method for reconstructing dynamical systems by delay coordinates---is widely used to forecast nonlinear time series as a model-free approach. When multivariate time series are observed, several existing frameworks can be…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-07-04 Shunya Okuno , Kazuyuki Aihara , Yoshito Hirata

As the role played by statistical and computational sciences in climate and environmental modelling and prediction becomes more important, Machine Learning researchers are becoming more aware of the relevance of their work to help tackle…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-12-23 Federico Amato , Fabian Guignard , Sylvain Robert , Mikhail Kanevski

Recent studies indicate that the effects of inter-annual climate-based variability in power system planning are significant and that long samples of demand & weather data (spanning multiple decades) should be considered. At the same time,…

应用统计 · 统计学 2019-05-30 Adriaan P Hilbers , David J Brayshaw , Axel Gandy

As an important part of the power system, power load forecasting directly affects the national economy. The data shows that improving the load forecasting accuracy by 0.01% can save millions of dollars for the power industry. Therefore,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-06-01 Zhifang Liao , Haihui Pan , Qi Zeng , Xiaoping Fan , Yan Zhang , Song Yu

Accurate forecasting of energy demand and supply is critical for optimizing sustainable energy systems, yet it is challenged by the variability of renewable sources and dynamic consumption patterns. This paper introduces a neural framework…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-15 Usman Gani Joy

Accurate short-term warnings for extreme precipitation are critical for global disaster mitigation but are hindered by a persistent predictability barrier at the 2-6 hour horizon -- the "nowcasting gray zone." In this window, traditional…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2026-01-29 Haofei Sun , Yunfan Yang , Wei Han , Wei Huang , Huaguan Chen , Zhiqiu Gao , Zeting Li , Zhaoyang Huo , Zeyi Niu

Integration of renewable energy sources and emerging loads like electric vehicles to smart grids brings more uncertainty to the distribution system management. Demand Side Management (DSM) is one of the approaches to reduce the uncertainty.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-09-28 Elahe Khoshbakhti Vaygan , Roozbeh Rajabi , Abouzar Estebsari

Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-05 Myungsoo Yoo , Likun Zhang , Christopher K. Wikle , Thomas Opitz