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Mediation analysis is widely used for exploring treatment mechanisms; however, it faces challenges when nonignorable missing confounders are present. Efficient inference of mediation effects and the efficiency loss due to nonignorable…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-22 Jiawei Shan , Wei Li , Chunrong Ai

We study the problem of causal effect identification from observational distribution given the causal graph and some context-specific independence (CSI) relations. It was recently shown that this problem is NP-hard, and while a sound…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-02-18 Ehsan Mokhtarian , Fateme Jamshidi , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash

Causal discovery is to learn cause-effect relationships among variables given observational data and is important for many applications. Existing causal discovery methods assume data sufficiency, which may not be the case in many real world…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-06-20 Zijun Cui , Naiyu Yin , Yuru Wang , Qiang Ji

Selection bias is a major obstacle toward valid causal inference in epidemiology. Over the past decade, several graphical rules based on causal diagrams have been proposed as the sufficient identification conditions for addressing selection…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-18 Yichi Zhang , Haidong Lu

Population adjustment methods such as matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) are increasingly used to compare marginal treatment effects when there are cross-trial differences in effect modifiers and limited patient-level data. MAIC…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-05-12 Antonio Remiro-Azócar , Anna Heath , Gianluca Baio

Inferring the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in an observational study requires adjusting for observed baseline confounders to avoid bias. However, adjusting for all observed baseline covariates, when only a subset are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-02-04 Wen Wei Loh , Stijn Vansteelandt

Estimating treatment effects from observational data is challenging due to two main reasons: (a) hidden confounding, and (b) covariate mismatch (control and treatment groups not having identical distributions). Long lines of works exist…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-30 Praharsh Nanavati , Ranjitha Prasad , Karthikeyan Shanmugam

We propose an empirically stable and asymptotically efficient covariate-balancing approach to the problem of estimating survival causal effects in data with conditionally-independent censoring. This addresses a challenge often encountered…

Covariate adjustment is a ubiquitous method used to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) from observational data. Assuming a known graphical structure of the data generating model, recent results give graphical criteria for optimal…

Incomplete covariate vectors are known to be problematic for estimation and inferences on model parameters, but their impact on prediction performance is less understood. We develop an imputation-free method that builds on a random…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-05-31 Matthew J. Heiner , Garritt L. Page , Fernando Andrés Quintana

Precise knowledge of causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) is assumed for standard approaches towards valid adjustment set selection for unbiased estimation, but in practice, the DAG is often inferred from data or expert knowledge,…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-11-14 Zhongyi Hu , Stéphanie van der Pas

In this paper, the causal bandit problem is investigated, with the objective of maximizing the long-term reward by selecting an optimal sequence of interventions on nodes in an unknown causal graph. It is assumed that both the causal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-30 Chen Peng , Di Zhang , Urbashi Mitra

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification. This study explores the application of conformal prediction in scenarios where covariates are missing, which introduces significant challenges for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-09 Jingsen Kong , YIming Liu , Guangren Yang

In randomized experiments, covariates are often used to reduce variance and improve the precision of treatment effect estimates. However, in many real-world settings, interference between units, where one unit's treatment affects another's…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-10 Xinyi Wang , Shuangning Li

Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) is a powerful method for detecting causality in coupled nonlinear dynamical systems, providing a model-free approach to capture dynamic causal interactions. Partial Cross Mapping (PCM) was introduced as an…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-07 Elise Zhang , François Mirallès , Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi , Arnaud Zinflou , Di Wu , Benoit Boulet

Several problems in statistics involve the combination of high-variance unbiased estimators with low-variance estimators that are only unbiased under strong assumptions. A notable example is the estimation of causal effects while combining…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-05-25 Michael Oberst , Alexander D'Amour , Minmin Chen , Yuyan Wang , David Sontag , Steve Yadlowsky

A decision-maker must consider cofounding bias when attempting to apply machine learning prediction, and, while feature selection is widely recognized as important process in data-analysis, it could cause cofounding bias. A causal Bayesian…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-03-02 Akihiro Yabe

Causal discovery from observational data is a fundamental tool in various fields of science. While existing approaches are typically designed for a single dataset, we often need to handle multiple datasets with non-identical variable sets…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-04 Hirofumi Suzuki , Kentaro Kanamori , Takuya Takagi , Thong Pham , Takashi Nicholas Maeda , Shohei Shimizu

Recent text-based causal methods attempt to mitigate confounding bias by estimating proxies of confounding variables that are partially or imperfectly measured from unstructured text data. These approaches, however, assume analysts have…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-10-30 Jacob M. Chen , Rohit Bhattacharya , Katherine A. Keith

An essential and challenging problem in causal inference is causal effect estimation from observational data. The problem becomes more difficult with the presence of unobserved confounding variables. The front-door adjustment is a practical…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-04 Ziqi Xu , Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Jixue Liu , Lin Liu , Kui Yu