相关论文: Angular Combining of Forecasts of Probability Dist…

Long range forecasts are the starting point of many decision support systems that need to draw inference from high-level aggregate patterns on forecasted values. State of the art time-series forecasting methods are either subject to concept…

Linear regression is a fundamental and popular statistical method. There are various kinds of linear regression, such as mean regression and quantile regression. In this paper, we propose a new one called distribution regression, which…

A new probabilistic post-processing method for wind vectors is presented in a distributional regression framework employing the bivariate Gaussian distribution. In contrast to previous studies all parameters of the distribution are…

In mixture model-based clustering applications, it is common to fit several models from a family and report clustering results from only the `best' one. In such circumstances, selection of this best model is achieved using a model selection…

Accurate forecasting of multivariate time series data is important in many engineering and scientific applications. Recent state-of-the-art works ignore the inter-relations between variates, using their model on each variate independently.…

We provide a comprehensive examination of the predictive performance of panel forecasting methods based on individual, pooling, fixed effects, and empirical Bayes estimation, and propose optimal weights for forecast combination schemes. We…

Mesoscale forecasts are now routinely performed as elements of operational forecasts and their outputs do appear convincing. However, despite their realistic appearance at times the comparison to observations is less favorable. At the grid…

We present a simple approach to forecasting conditional probability distributions of asset returns. We work with a parsimonious specification of ordered binary choice regression that imposes a connection on sign predictability across…

We introduce a mixture of generalized hyperbolic distributions as an alternative to the ubiquitous mixture of Gaussian distributions as well as their near relatives of which the mixture of multivariate t and skew-t distributions are…

This paper develops new methodology, together with related theories, for combining information from independent studies through confidence distributions. A formal definition of a confidence distribution and its asymptotic counterpart (i.e.,…

Mixture models are commonly used when data show signs of heterogeneity and, often, it is important to estimate the distribution of the latent variable responsible for that heterogeneity. This is a common problem for data taking values in a…

Improvement of time series forecasting accuracy through combining multiple models is an important as well as a dynamic area of research. As a result, various forecasts combination methods have been developed in literature. However, most of…

This expository paper discusses Bayesian decision analysis perspectives on problems of constrained forecasting. Foundational and pedagogic discussion contrasts decision analytic approaches with the traditional, but typically inappropriate,…

We propose local prediction pools as a method for combining the predictive distributions of a set of experts conditional on a set of variables believed to be related to the predictive accuracy of the experts. This is done in a two step…

Probabilistic forecasts comprehensively describe the uncertainty in the unknown future outcome, making them essential for decision making and risk management. While several methods have been introduced to evaluate probabilistic forecasts,…

Angle halving, or alternatively the reverse operation of angle doubling, is a useful tool when studying directional distributions. It is especially useful on the circle where, in particular, it yields an identification between the wrapped…

Many organizations face critical decisions that rely on forecasts of binary events. In these situations, organizations often gather forecasts from multiple experts or models and average those forecasts to produce a single aggregate…

Predictive hydrological uncertainty can be quantified by using ensemble methods. If properly formulated, these methods can offer improved predictive performance by combining multiple predictions. In this work, we use 50-year-long monthly…

There has been increasing interest in recent years in the development of approaches to estimate causal effects when the number of potential confounders is prohibitively large. This growth in interest has led to a number of potential…

Stochastic linear combinations of some random vectors are studied where the distribution of the random vectors and the joint distribution of their coefficients are Dirichlet. A method is provided for calculating the distribution of these…