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200 篇论文

This paper introduces a novel Bayesian approach to detect changes in the variance of a Gaussian sequence model, focusing on quantifying the uncertainty in the change point locations and providing a scalable algorithm for inference. Such a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-04 Lorenzo Cappello , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

Estimating the parameters of mathematical models is a common problem in almost all branches of science. However, this problem can prove notably difficult when processes and model descriptions become increasingly complex and an explicit…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-02-09 Stefan T. Radev , Ulf K. Mertens , Andreas Voss , Lynton Ardizzone , Ullrich Köthe

The renormalization group (RG) is a powerful theoretical framework developed to consistently transform the description of configurations of systems with many degrees of freedom, along with the associated model parameters and coupling…

统计力学 · 物理学 2026-04-20 Andrea Gabrielli , Diego Garlaschelli , Subodh P. Patil , M. Ángeles Serrano

In computational inverse problems, it is common that a detailed and accurate forward model is approximated by a computationally less challenging substitute. The model reduction may be necessary to meet constraints in computing time when…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-02-14 Daniela Calvetti , Matthew M. Dunlop , Erkki Somersalo , Andrew M. Stuart

Bayesian inference provides a flexible way of combining data with prior information. However, quantile regression is not equipped with a parametric likelihood, and therefore, Bayesian inference for quantile regression demands careful…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-07-24 Yunwen Yang , Xuming He

Implementing Bayesian inference is often computationally challenging in applications involving complex models, and sometimes calculating the likelihood itself is difficult. Synthetic likelihood is one approach for carrying out inference…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-03-15 David T. Frazier , David J. Nott , Christopher Drovandi , Robert Kohn

Far from equilibrium, neural systems self-organize across multiple scales. Exploiting multiscale self-organization in neuroscience and artificial intelligence requires a computational framework for modeling the effective non-equilibrium…

神经元与认知 · 定量生物学 2025-10-09 Nathan X. Kodama

Bayesian learning is a powerful learning framework which combines the external information of the data (background information) with the internal information (training data) in a logically consistent way in inference and prediction. By…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-02-11 Erdong Guo , David Draper

We consider the Bayesian optimal filtering problem: i.e. estimating some conditional statistics of a latent time-series signal from an observation sequence. Classical approaches often rely on the use of assumed or estimated transition and…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-03-16 Adrian N. Bishop , Edwin V. Bonilla

The design of informatively rich input signals is essential for accurate system identification, yet classical Fisher-information-based methods are inherently local and often inadequate in the presence of significant model uncertainty and…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-12-15 Piotr Bania , Anna Wójcik

Quantifying the influence of infinitesimal changes in training data on model performance is crucial for understanding and improving machine learning models. In this work, we reformulate this problem as a weighted empirical risk minimization…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-11 Omri Lev , Ashia C. Wilson

This paper is concerned with making Bayesian inference from data that are assumed to be drawn from a Bingham distribution. A barrier to the Bayesian approach is the parameter-dependent normalising constant of the Bingham distribution,…

统计计算 · 统计学 2014-01-14 Christopher J. Fallaize , Theodore Kypraios

We rigorously analyse fully-trained neural networks of arbitrary depth in the Bayesian optimal setting in the so-called proportional scaling regime where the number of training samples and width of the input and all inner layers diverge…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-05-07 Francesco Camilli , Daria Tieplova , Eleonora Bergamin , Jean Barbier

The renormalization group plays an essential role in many areas of physics, both conceptually and as a practical tool to determine the long-distance low-energy properties of many systems on the one hand and on the other hand search for…

统计力学 · 物理学 2021-05-10 N. Dupuis , L. Canet , A. Eichhorn , W. Metzner , J. M. Pawlowski , M. Tissier , N. Wschebor

Bayesian statistical inference for Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) with parameters lying on a constrained space is of general interest (e.g., in monotonic or convex regression), but often constructing valid prior distributions supported on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-09-02 Rahul Ghosal , Sujit K. Ghosh

Bayesian inference with computationally expensive likelihood evaluations remains a significant challenge in many scientific domains. We propose normalizing flow regression (NFR), a novel offline inference method for approximating posterior…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-04-17 Chengkun Li , Bobby Huggins , Petrus Mikkola , Luigi Acerbi

Replication studies are essential for assessing the credibility of claims from original studies. A critical aspect of designing replication studies is determining their sample size; a too small sample size may lead to inconclusive studies…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-08-14 Samuel Pawel , Guido Consonni , Leonhard Held

Deep learning is a broad set of techniques that uses multiple layers of representation to automatically learn relevant features directly from structured data. Recently, such techniques have yielded record-breaking results on a diverse set…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-10-16 Pankaj Mehta , David J. Schwab

This paper offers a qualitative insight into the convergence of Bayesian parameter inference in a setup which mimics the modeling of the spread of a disease with associated disease measurements. Specifically, we are interested in the…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-12-08 Samuel Bronstein , Stefan Engblom , Robin Marin

A new Bayesian modeling method is proposed by combining the maximization of the marginal likelihood with a momentum-space renormalization group transformation for Gaussian graphical models. Moreover, we present a scheme for computint the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-08-01 Kazuyuki Tanaka , Masamichi Nakamura , Shun Kataoka , Masayuki Ohzeki , Muneki Yasuda