相关论文: Point and probabilistic forecast reconciliation fo…

Forecast combinations have been widely applied in the last few decades to improve forecasting. Estimating optimal weights that can outperform simple averages is not always an easy task. In recent years, the idea of using time series…

We present a novel approach for reconciling hierarchical forecasts, based on Bayes rule. We define a prior distribution for the bottom time series of the hierarchy, based on the bottom base forecasts. Then we update their distribution via…

Conformal Prediction offers a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models, enabling the construction of prediction sets with finite-sample validity guarantees. While easily adaptable to non-probabilistic…

This review article focuses on regularised estimation procedures applicable to geostatistical and spatial econometric models. These methods are particularly relevant in the case of big geospatial data for dimensionality reduction or model…

Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions of machine learning models that are valid with high probability. However, applying conformal prediction to time series data leads to conservative prediction…

Earlier versions proposed Graded Projection Recursion (GPR) as a deterministic packed-recursion framework for model-honest near-quadratic dense matrix multiplication. This revised version withdraws the exact dense matrix multiplication…

Selecting an appropriate look-back horizon remains a fundamental challenge in time series forecasting (TSF), particularly in the federated learning scenarios where data is decentralized, heterogeneous, and often non-independent. While…

Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building…

Forecast combinations have flourished remarkably in the forecasting community and, in recent years, have become part of the mainstream of forecasting research and activities. Combining multiple forecasts produced from single (target) series…

Several applications in time series forecasting require predicting multiple steps ahead. Despite the vast amount of literature in the topic, both classical and recent deep learning based approaches have mostly focused on minimising…

In demographic literature, forecast uncertainty is often quantified with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from drawbacks, namely model misspecification, selection effect, and lack of finite-sample…

Multi-view data have been routinely collected in various fields of science and engineering. A general problem is to study the predictive association between multivariate responses and multi-view predictor sets, all of which can be of high…

Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate time series is essential for various downstream tasks. Most existing approaches rely on the sequences being uniformly spaced and aligned across all variables. However, real-world multivariate time…

The fixed-event forecasting setup is common in economic policy. It involves a sequence of forecasts of the same (`fixed') predictand, so that the difficulty of the forecasting problem decreases over time. Fixed-event point forecasts are…

When providing probabilistic forecasts for uncertain future events, it is common to strive for calibrated forecasts, that is, the predictive distribution should be compatible with the observed outcomes. Several notions of calibration are…

Several recent works have developed a new, probabilistic interpretation for numerical algorithms solving linear systems in which the solution is inferred in a Bayesian framework, either directly or by inferring the unknown action of the…

Conformal prediction offers a practical framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification, providing finite-sample coverage guarantees under relatively mild assumptions on data exchangeability. However, these assumptions cease to…

In this paper, we present a sharp analysis for a class of alternating projected gradient descent algorithms which are used to solve the covariate adjusted precision matrix estimation problem in the high-dimensional setting. We demonstrate…

Recently, diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have achieved promising results in diverse generative tasks. A typical DPM framework includes a forward process that gradually diffuses the data distribution and a reverse process that…

Delivering precise point and distributional forecasts across a spectrum of prediction horizons represents a significant and enduring challenge in the application of time-series forecasting within various industries. Prior research on…