相关论文: Reply to Discussions of "Multivariate Dynamic Mode…

Forecasting enterprise-wide revenue is critical to many companies and presents several challenges and opportunities for significant business impact. This case study is based on model developments to address these challenges for forecasting…

The Bayesian statistical paradigm provides a principled and coherent approach to probabilistic forecasting. Uncertainty about all unknowns that characterize any forecasting problem -- model, parameters, latent states -- is able to be…

This paper argues that there has not been enough discussion in the field of applications of Gaussian Process for the fast moving consumer goods industry. Yet, this technique can be important as it e.g., can provide automatic feature…

Bayesian forecasting is developed in multivariate time series analysis for causal inference. Causal evaluation of sequentially observed time series data from control and treated units focuses on the impacts of interventions using…

We discuss Bayesian model uncertainty analysis and forecasting in sequential dynamic modeling of multivariate time series. The perspective is that of a decision-maker with a specific forecasting objective that guides thinking about relevant…

I overview recent research advances in Bayesian state-space modeling of multivariate time series. A main focus is on the decouple/recouple concept that enables application of state-space models to increasingly large-scale data, applying to…

Theoretical developments in sequential Bayesian analysis of multivariate dynamic models underlie new methodology for causal prediction. This extends the utility of existing models with computationally efficient methodology, enabling routine…

We develop the methodology and a detailed case study in use of a class of Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) models for multivariate time series forecasting. This extends the recently introduced foundational framework of BPS to the…

We present new Bayesian methodology for consumer sales forecasting. With a focus on multi-step ahead forecasting of daily sales of many supermarket items, we adapt dynamic count mixture models to forecast individual customer transactions,…

Bayesian models are a powerful tool for studying complex data, allowing the analyst to encode rich hierarchical dependencies and leverage prior information. Most importantly, they facilitate a complete characterization of uncertainty…

We discuss Bayesian forecasting of increasingly high-dimensional time series, a key area of application of stochastic dynamic models in the financial industry and allied areas of business. Novel state-space models characterizing sparse…

We give a contributed discussion on "Model uncertainty and missing data: An Objective Bayesian Perspective", where we discuss frequentist perspectives on the proposed methodology.

This article is the rejoinder for the paper "Probabilistic Integration: A Role in Statistical Computation?" to appear in Statistical Science with discussion. We would first like to thank the reviewers and many of our colleagues who helped…

We propose an approach for generating macroeconomic density forecasts that incorporate information on multiple scenarios defined by experts. We adopt a regime-switching framework in which sets of scenarios ("views") are used as Bayesian…

We wish to contribute to the discussion of "Comparing Consensus Monte Carlo Strategies for Distributed Bayesian Computation" by offering our views on the current best methods for Bayesian computation, both at big-data scale and with smaller…

This paper explores the versatility and depth of Bayesian modeling by presenting a comprehensive range of applications and methods, combining Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques and variational approximations. Covering topics such as…

The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear…

This expository paper discusses Bayesian decision analysis perspectives on problems of constrained forecasting. Foundational and pedagogic discussion contrasts decision analytic approaches with the traditional, but typically inappropriate,…

This paper develops forecasting methodology and application of new classes of dynamic models for time series of non-negative counts. Novel univariate models synthesise dynamic generalized linear models for binary and conditionally Poisson…

Accurate demand forecasting is one of the key aspects for successfully managing restaurants and staff canteens. In particular, properly predicting future sales of menu items allows a precise ordering of food stock. From an environmental…