相关论文: Linking Unserved Energy to Weather Regimes

The El Ni\~no phenomenon, synonymously El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is an anomalous climatic oscillation in the Equatorial Pacific that occurs once every 3-8 years. It affects the earth's climate on a global scale. Whether it is a…

The high temporal variability of wind power generation represents a major challenge for the realization of a sustainable energy supply. Large backup and storage facilities are necessary to secure the supply in periods of low renewable…

Hydrogen-based long-duration electricity storage (LDES) is a key component of renewable energy systems to deal with seasonality and prolonged periods of low wind and solar energy availability. In this paper, we investigate how electrified…

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events since the beginning of the 21st century has led to the development of new methods to attribute extreme events to anthropogenic climate change. The way in which the extreme event is defined…

The European energy system will undergo major transformations in the coming decades to implement mitigation measures and comply with the Paris Agreement. In particular, the share of weather-dependent wind generation will increase…

As energy systems transform to rely on renewable energy and electrification, they encounter stronger year-to-year variability in energy supply and demand. However, most infrastructure planning is based on a single weather year, resulting in…

The extratropical meridional energy transport in the atmosphere is fundamentally intermittent in nature, having extremes large enough to affect the net seasonal transport. Here, we investigate how these extreme transports are associated…

The future energy system will largely depend on volatile renewable energy sources and temperature-dependent loads, which makes the weather a central influencing factor. This article presents a novel approach for simulating weather scenarios…

Renewable generation from wind and solar power is strongly weather-dependent. To plan future sustainable energy systems that are robust to this variability, a better understanding of why and when periods of low wind and solar power output…

A transition to renewable energy is needed to mitigate climate change. In Europe, this transition has been led by wind energy, which is one of the fastest growing energy sources. However, energy demand and production are sensitive to…

Accurate forecasts of the impact of spatial weather and pan-European socio-economic and political risks on hourly electricity demand for the mid-term horizon are crucial for strategic decision-making amidst the inherent uncertainty. Most…

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events such as droughts or flooding. Recently, we have developed several statistical approaches for…

Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…

The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) and pressure across the equatorial Pacific Ocean with a period of 2-7 years. As the largest mode of interannual variability on Earth, ENSO shapes…

Capacity expansion models used for policy support have increasingly represented both the variability and uncertainty of weather-dependent generation (wind and solar). However, although also uncertain, as demonstrated by the performance of…

We suggest a new methodology for designing robust energy systems. For this, we investigate so-called near-optimal solutions to energy system optimisation models; solutions whose objective values deviate only marginally from the optimum.…

The rich countries of Western Europe and its citizens benefited during at least the last 30 years from an extraordinary stable electricity grid. This stability was achieved by the european grid system and a large flexible and reliable spare…

We study the hemispheric to continental scale regimes that lead to summertime heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere. By using a powerful data mining methodology - archetype analysis - we identify characteristic spatial patterns consisting of…

Energy storage systems (EES) are expected to be an indispensable resource for mitigating the effects on networks of high penetrations of distributed generation in the near future. This paper analyzes the benefits of EES in unbalanced low…

We use three ensemble members of the EURO-CORDEX project and their data on surface wind speeds, solar irradiation as well as water runoff with a spatial resolution of 12 km and a temporal resolution of 3 hours under representative…