相关论文: PyVBMC: Efficient Bayesian inference in Python

The steady-state Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) makes it possible to incorporate prior information about the long-run mean of the process. This has been shown in many studies to substantially improve forecasting performance, and the…

ParaMonte::Python (standing for Parallel Monte Carlo in Python) is a serial and MPI-parallelized library of (Markov Chain) Monte Carlo (MCMC) routines for sampling mathematical objective functions, in particular, the posterior distributions…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are powerful computational tools for analysis of complex statistical problems. However, their computational efficiency is highly dependent on the chosen proposal distribution, which is generally…

Variational inference (VI) is a method to approximate the computationally intractable posterior distributions that arise in Bayesian statistics. Typically, VI fits a simple parametric distribution to the target posterior by minimizing an…

In Bayesian inverse problems, one aims at characterizing the posterior distribution of a set of unknowns, given indirect measurements. For non-linear/non-Gaussian problems, analytic solutions are seldom available: Sequential Monte Carlo…

Along with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, variational inference (VI) has emerged as a central computational approach to large-scale Bayesian inference. Rather than sampling from the true posterior $\pi$, VI aims at producing a…

The multinomial probit model is often used to analyze choice behaviour. However, estimation with existing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is computationally costly, which limits its applicability to large choice data sets. This…

The Mean Field Variational Bayes (MFVB) method is one of the most computationally efficient techniques for Bayesian inference. However, its use has been restricted to models with conjugate priors or those that require analytical…

In this paper we address the problem of Monte Carlo approximation of posterior probability distributions in stochastic kinetic models (SKMs). SKMs are multivariate Markov jump processes that model the interactions among species in…

Solving Bayesian inference problems approximately with variational approaches can provide fast and accurate results. Capturing correlation within the approximation requires an explicit parametrization. This intrinsically limits this…

Variational Bayes (VB) is a popular estimation method for Bayesian inference. However, most existing VB algorithms are restricted to cases where the likelihood is tractable, which precludes their use in many important situations. Tran et…

In the popular approach of "Bayesian variable selection" (BVS), one uses prior and posterior distributions to select a subset of candidate variables to enter the model. A completely new direction will be considered here to study BVS with a…

In Bayesian inference, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm known for its efficiency in sampling from complex probability distributions. However, its application to models with latent…

Bayesian inference has become an important tool to solve inverse problems and to quantify uncertainties in their solutions. Variational inference is a method that provides probabilistic, Bayesian solutions efficiently by using optimization.…

In cohort studies binary outcomes are very often analyzed by logistic regression. However, it is well-known that when the goal is to estimate a risk ratio, the logistic regression is inappropriate if the outcome is common. In these cases, a…

In recent years, the shortcomings of Bayesian posteriors as inferential devices have received increased attention. A popular strategy for fixing them has been to instead target a Gibbs measure based on losses that connect a parameter of…

BayesPy is an open-source Python software package for performing variational Bayesian inference. It is based on the variational message passing framework and supports conjugate exponential family models. By removing the tedious task of…

Implementing Bayesian inference is often computationally challenging in applications involving complex models, and sometimes calculating the likelihood itself is difficult. Synthetic likelihood is one approach for carrying out inference…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques are now widely used for cosmological parameter estimation. Chains are generated to sample the posterior probability distribution obtained following the Bayesian approach. An important issue is how…

The success of deep learning requires large datasets and extensive training, which can create significant computational challenges. To address these challenges, pseudo-coresets, small learnable datasets that mimic the entire data, have been…