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Recent work used importance sampling ideas for better variational bounds on likelihoods. We clarify the applicability of these ideas to pure probabilistic inference, by showing the resulting Importance Weighted Variational Inference (IWVI)…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-10-30 Justin Domke , Daniel Sheldon

Quantum error correction of a surface code or repetition code requires the pairwise matching of error events in a space-time graph of qubit measurements, such that the total weight of the matching is minimized. The input weights follow from…

量子物理 · 物理学 2018-08-01 S. T. Spitz , B. Tarasinski , C. W. J. Beenakker , T. E. O'Brien

The application of machine learning models can be significantly impeded by the occurrence of distributional shifts, as the assumption of homogeneity between the population of training and testing samples in machine learning and statistics…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-06-06 Wenlu Tang , Zicheng Liu

Importance weighting is a classic technique to handle distribution shifts. However, prior work has presented strong empirical and theoretical evidence demonstrating that importance weights can have little to no effect on overparameterized…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-03-07 Ke Alexander Wang , Niladri S. Chatterji , Saminul Haque , Tatsunori Hashimoto

The recent paper by Byrd & Lipton (2019), based on empirical observations, raises a major concern on the impact of importance weighting for the over-parameterized deep learning models. They observe that as long as the model can separate the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-03-30 Da Xu , Yuting Ye , Chuanwei Ruan

Statistical models that include random effects are commonly used to analyze longitudinal and correlated data, often with strong and parametric assumptions about the random effects distribution. There is marked disagreement in the literature…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-01-11 Charles E. McCulloch , John M. Neuhaus

Covariate shift in the test data is a common practical phenomena that can significantly downgrade both the accuracy and the fairness performance of the model. Ensuring fairness across different sensitive groups under covariate shift is of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-09 Shreyas Havaldar , Jatin Chauhan , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Jay Nandy , Aravindan Raghuveer

Causal inference is only valid when its underlying assumptions are satisfied, one of the most central being the ignorability or unconfoundedness assumption. However, this hypothesis is often unrealistic in observational studies, as some…

The inverse probability weighting (IPW) is broadly utilized to address missing data problems including causal inference but may suffer from large variances and biases due to propensity score model misspecification. To solve these problems,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-08-05 Hiroto Katsumata

Importance sampling is a central idea underlying off-policy prediction in reinforcement learning. It provides a strategy for re-weighting samples from a distribution to obtain unbiased estimates under another distribution. However,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-28 Kristopher De Asis , Eric Graves , Richard S. Sutton

Concerns have been expressed over the validity of statistical inference under covariate-adaptive randomization despite the extensive use in clinical trials. In the literature, the inferential properties under covariate-adaptive…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-05 Li Yang , Wei Ma , Yichen Qin , Feifang Hu

Current methods for covariate-shift adaptation use unlabelled data to compute importance weights or domain-invariant features, while the final model is trained on labelled data only. Here, we consider a particular case of covariate shift…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-02-28 Julius von Kügelgen , Alexander Mey , Marco Loog

Importance sampling (IS) is an efficient stand-in for model refitting in performing (LOO) cross-validation (CV) on a Bayesian model. IS inverts the Bayesian update for a single observation by reweighting posterior samples. The so-called…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-26 Joshua C Chang , Xiangting Li , Tianyi Su , Shixin Xu , Hao-Ren Yao , Julia Porcino , Carson Chow

Importance-weighted risk minimization is a key ingredient in many machine learning algorithms for causal inference, domain adaptation, class imbalance, and off-policy reinforcement learning. While the effect of importance weighting is…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-06-17 Jonathon Byrd , Zachary C. Lipton

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential in survival prediction, particularly in clinical settings where erroneous decisions carry high risk. Conformal prediction has attracted substantial attention as it offers a model-agnostic…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-04 Jaeyoung Shin , Chi Hyun Lee , Sangwook Kang

Many existing approaches to generalizing statistical inference amidst distribution shift operate under the covariate shift assumption, which posits that the conditional distribution of unobserved variables given observable ones is invariant…

应用统计 · 统计学 2024-12-13 Ying Jin , Naoki Egami , Dominik Rothenhäusler

Inverse probability weighting (IPW) is widely used in many areas when data are subject to unrepresentativeness, missingness, or selection bias. An inevitable challenge with the use of IPW is that the IPW estimator can be remarkably unstable…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-11-29 Yukun Liu , Yan Fan

The gold standard for causal model evaluation involves comparing model predictions with true effects estimated from randomized controlled trials (RCT). However, RCTs are not always feasible or ethical to perform. In contrast, conditionally…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-06 Chao Ma , Cheng Zhang

Inverse propensity weighting (IPW) is a popular method for estimating treatment effects from observational data. However, its correctness relies on the untestable (and frequently implausible) assumption that all confounders have been…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-08-04 Jacob Dorn , Kevin Guo

Bias in datasets can be very detrimental for appropriate statistical estimation. In response to this problem, importance weighting methods have been developed to match any biased distribution to its corresponding target unbiased…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-09-12 Antoine de Mathelin , Francois Deheeger , Mathilde Mougeot , Nicolas Vayatis