相关论文: Probabilistic Circuits That Know What They Don't K…

Modern neural networks are very powerful predictive models, but they are often incapable of recognizing when their predictions may be wrong. Closely related to this is the task of out-of-distribution detection, where a network must…

This study addresses the predictive limitation of probabilistic circuits and introduces transformations as a remedy to overcome it. We demonstrate this limitation in robotic scenarios. We motivate that independent component analysis is a…

When collaborating with an AI system, we need to assess when to trust its recommendations. If we mistakenly trust it in regions where it is likely to err, catastrophic failures may occur, hence the need for Bayesian approaches for…

The integration of various power sources, including renewables and electric vehicles, into smart grids is expanding, introducing uncertainties that can result in issues like voltage imbalances, load fluctuations, and power losses. These…

Deep neural networks are behind many of the recent successes in machine learning applications. However, these models can produce overconfident decisions while encountering out-of-distribution (OOD) examples or making a wrong prediction.…

Mechanistic Interpretability (MI) aims to reverse-engineer model behaviors by identifying functional sub-networks. Yet, the scientific validity of these findings depends on their stability. In this work, we argue that circuit discovery is…

Uncertainty is a key feature of any machine learning model and is particularly important in neural networks, which tend to be overconfident. This overconfidence is worrying under distribution shifts, where the model performance silently…

We present SODA-MPC, a Safe, Out-of-Distribution-Adaptive Model Predictive Control algorithm, which uses an ensemble of learned models for prediction, with a runtime monitor to flag unreliable out-of-distribution (OOD) predictions. When an…

The problem of detecting the Out-of-Distribution (OoD) inputs is of paramount importance for Deep Neural Networks. It has been previously shown that even Deep Generative Models that allow estimating the density of the inputs may not be…

Reliably assessing model confidence in deep learning and predicting errors likely to be made are key elements in providing safety for model deployment, in particular for applications with dire consequences. In this paper, it is first shown…

Credal predictors are models that are aware of epistemic uncertainty and produce a convex set of probabilistic predictions. They offer a principled way to quantify predictive epistemic uncertainty (EU) and have been shown to improve model…

It has recently been shown that ReLU networks produce arbitrarily over-confident predictions far away from the training data. Thus, ReLU networks do not know when they don't know. However, this is a highly important property in safety…

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a promising avenue for probabilistic modeling, as they permit a wide range of exact and efficient inference routines. Recent ``deep-learning-style'' implementations of PCs strive for a better scalability,…

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are known to produce incorrect predictions with very high confidence on out-of-distribution inputs (OODs). This limitation is one of the key challenges in the adoption of DNNs in high-assurance systems such as…

We present differentiable predictive control (DPC) as a deep learning-based alternative to the explicit model predictive control (MPC) for unknown nonlinear systems. In the DPC framework, a neural state-space model is learned from…

Probabilistic modeling is cyclical: we specify a model, infer its posterior, and evaluate its performance. Evaluation drives the cycle, as we revise our model based on how it performs. This requires a metric. Traditionally, predictive…

We present a novel robust control framework for continuous-time, perturbed nonlinear dynamical systems with uncertainty that depends nonlinearly on both the state and control inputs. Unlike conventional approaches that impose structural…

Neural networks are lately more and more often being used in the context of data-driven control, as an approximate model of the true system dynamics. Model Predictive Control (MPC) adopts this practise leading to neural MPC strategies. This…

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification method that has gained popularity in the machine learning community due to its finite-sample guarantees and ease of use. Its most common variant, dubbed split conformal…

Deep neural networks suffer from the overconfidence issue in the open world, meaning that classifiers could yield confident, incorrect predictions for out-of-distribution (OOD) samples. Thus, it is an urgent and challenging task to detect…