相关论文: Causal Analysis of Influence of the Solar Cycle an…
Solar wind forecasting plays a crucial role in space weather prediction, yet significant uncertainties persist due to incomplete magnetic field observations of the Sun. Isolating the solar wind forecasting errors due to these effects is…
The ambient solar wind conditions in interplanetary space and in the near-Earth environment are determined by activity on the Sun. Steady solar wind streams modulate the propagation behaviour of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and are…
The solar wind speed at Earth is one of the most important parameters regarding the effects of space weather on society. Thus far, most approaches for predicting the solar wind speed produce a single-value time series without uncertainty,…
Space weather at Earth, driven by the solar activity, poses growing risks to satellites around our planet as well as to critical ground-based technological infrastructure. Major space weather contributors are the solar wind and coronal mass…
The dynamic activity of the Sun -- sustained by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism working in its interior -- modulates the electromagnetic, particulate and radiative environment in space. While solar activity variations on short…
Current solar wind prediction is based on the Wang & Sheeley empirical relationship between the solar wind speed observed at 1 AU and the rate of magnetic flux tube expansion (FTE) between the photosphere and the inner corona, where FTE is…
Space weather predictions of the solar wind impacting Earth are usually first based on remote-sensing observations of the solar disc and corona, and eventually validated and/or refined with in-situ measurements taken at the Sun$-$Earth…
Solar wind streams, acting as background, govern the propagation of space weather drivers in the heliosphere, which induce geomagnetic storm activities. Therefore, predictions of the solar wind parameters are the core of space weather…
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather and climate). In recent years there has been an…
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and the Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the…
Emanating from the base of the Sun's corona, the solar wind fills the interplanetary medium with a magnetized stream of charged particles whose interaction with the Earth's magnetosphere has space-weather consequences such as geomagnetic…
An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric…
Space weather refers to conditions on the Sun, in the interplanetary space and in the Earth space environment that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human…
Solar wind back-mapping is a combination of ballistic mapping and magnetic mapping. By examining the different model ingredients that can affect the derived back-mapped position, we aim to provide a more precise estimate of the source…
The occlusion of the sun by clouds is one of the primary sources of uncertainties in solar power generation, and is a factor that affects the wide-spread use of solar power as a primary energy source. Real-time forecasting of cloud movement…
Evaluating the magnitude of natural climate variations is important because it can greatly affect future climate policies. As an example, we examine the influence of changes in solar activity (solar wind in particular) on surface…
Despite the increasing importance of forecasts of renewable energy, current planning studies only address a general estimate of the forecast quality to be expected and selected forecast horizons. However, these estimates allow only a…
The variability in the magnetic activity of the Sun is the main source of the observed changes in the plasma and electromagnetic environments within the heliosphere. The primary way in which solar activity affects the Earth's environment is…
Forecasting Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) fluence, as integrated over an SEP event, is an important element when estimating the effect of solar eruptions on humans and technology in space. Current real-time estimates are based on SEP…
Probabilistic forecasts of renewable energy production provide users with valuable information about the uncertainty associated with the expected generation. Current state-of-the-art forecasts for solar irradiance have focused on producing…