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This paper tackles the problem of detecting abrupt changes in the mean of a heteroscedastic signal by model selection, without knowledge on the variations of the noise. A new family of change-point detection procedures is proposed, showing…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2011-02-01 Sylvain Arlot , Alain Celisse

Linear discriminant analysis is a widely used method for classification. However, the high dimensionality of predictors combined with small sample sizes often results in large classification errors. To address this challenge, it is crucial…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-01-09 Hongzhe Zhang , Arnab Auddy , Hongzhe Lee

When machine learning models are deployed on a test distribution different from the training distribution, they can perform poorly, but overestimate their performance. In this work, we aim to better estimate a model's performance under…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-07-08 Ching-Yao Chuang , Antonio Torralba , Stefanie Jegelka

The term dataset shift refers to the situation where the data used to train a machine learning model is different from where the model operates. While several types of shifts naturally occur, existing shift detectors are usually designed to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-06-29 Simona Maggio , Léo Dreyfus-Schmidt

Classifiers trained solely on labeled source data may yield misleading results when applied to unlabeled target data drawn from a different distribution. Transfer learning can rectify this by transferring knowledge from source to target…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-02-19 Junjun Lang , Yukun Liu

The hazard ratio from the Cox proportional hazards model is a ubiquitous summary of treatment effect. However, when hazards are non-proportional, the hazard ratio can lose a stable causal interpretation and become study-dependent because it…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-17 Xiang Meng , Lu Tian , Kenneth Kehl , Hajime Uno

Instrumental variable models allow us to identify a causal function between covariates $X$ and a response $Y$, even in the presence of unobserved confounding. Most of the existing estimators assume that the error term in the response $Y$…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-09-23 Sorawit Saengkyongam , Leonard Henckel , Niklas Pfister , Jonas Peters

Most machine learning methods assume that the input data distribution is the same in the training and testing phases. However, in practice, this stationarity is usually not met and the distribution of inputs differs, leading to unexpected…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-04-19 Firas Bayram , Bestoun S. Ahmed

The standard supervised learning paradigm works effectively when training data shares the same distribution as the upcoming testing samples. However, this stationary assumption is often violated in real-world applications, especially when…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-01-18 Yong Bai , Yu-Jie Zhang , Peng Zhao , Masashi Sugiyama , Zhi-Hua Zhou

Distribution shift is an important concern in deep image classification, produced either by corruption of the source images, or a complete change, with the solution involving domain adaptation. While the primary goal is to improve accuracy…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-10-19 Tiago Salvador , Vikram Voleti , Alexander Iannantuono , Adam Oberman

Probabilistic classification of unassociated Fermi-LAT sources using machine learning methods has an implicit assumption that the distributions of associated and unassociated sources are the same as a function of source parameters, which is…

高能天体物理现象 · 物理学 2024-01-04 Dmitry V. Malyshev

Selective classification enables models to make predictions only when they are sufficiently confident, aiming to enhance safety and reliability, which is important in high-stakes scenarios. Previous methods mainly use deep neural networks…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-10 Yu-Chang Wu , Shen-Huan Lyu , Haopu Shang , Xiangyu Wang , Chao Qian

Deep neural networks tend to make overconfident predictions and often require additional detectors for misclassifications, particularly for safety-critical applications. Existing detection methods usually only focus on adversarial attacks…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-07-07 Julia Lust , Alexandru P. Condurache

We study the problem of inferring heterogeneous treatment effects from time-to-event data. While both the related problems of (i) estimating treatment effects for binary or continuous outcomes and (ii) predicting survival outcomes have been…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-01-25 Alicia Curth , Changhee Lee , Mihaela van der Schaar

Detecting and localizing change points in sequential data is of interest in many areas of application. Various notions of change points have been proposed, such as changes in mean, variance, or the linear regression coefficient. In this…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-20 Shimeng Huang , Jonas Peters , Niklas Pfister

This paper addresses the problem of distributed hypothesis testing in multi-agent networks, where agents repeatedly collect local observations about an unknown state of the world, and try to collaboratively detect the true state through…

分布式、并行与集群计算 · 计算机科学 2016-06-13 Lili Su , Nitin H. Vaidya

As a fundamental problem in machine learning, dataset shift induces a paradigm to learn and transfer knowledge under changing environment. Previous methods assume the changes are induced by covariate, which is less practical for complex…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-03-01 You-Wei Luo , Chuan-Xian Ren

Covariate shift is a common transfer learning scenario where the marginal distributions of input variables vary between source and target data while the conditional distribution of the output variable remains consistent. The existing…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-01-23 Petr Zamolodtchikov , Hanyuan Hang

Methods of transfer learning try to combine knowledge from several related tasks (or domains) to improve performance on a test task. Inspired by causal methodology, we relax the usual covariate shift assumption and assume that it holds true…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-09-25 Mateo Rojas-Carulla , Bernhard Schölkopf , Richard Turner , Jonas Peters

Modern machine learning methods and the availability of large-scale data have significantly advanced our ability to predict target quantities from large sets of covariates. However, these methods often struggle under distributional shifts,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-24 Nicola Gnecco , Jonas Peters , Sebastian Engelke , Niklas Pfister