相关论文: Auxiliary Quantile Forecasting with Linear Network…

While neural networks are achieving high predictive accuracy in multi-horizon probabilistic forecasting, understanding the underlying mechanisms that lead to feature-conditioned outputs remains a significant challenge for forecasters. In…

The importance of accurately quantifying forecast uncertainty has motivated much recent research on probabilistic forecasting. In particular, a variety of deep learning approaches has been proposed, with forecast distributions obtained as…

Linear quantile regression is a powerful tool to investigate how predictors may affect a response heterogeneously across different quantile levels. Unfortunately, existing approaches find it extremely difficult to adjust for any dependency…

Quantifying forecast uncertainty is a key aspect of state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction and data assimilation systems. Ensemble-based data assimilation systems incorporate state-dependent uncertainty quantification based on…

While distribution networks (DNs) turn from consumers to active and responsive intelligent DNs, the question of how to represent them in large-scale transmission network (TN) studies is still under investigation. The standard approach that…

Financial forecasting is challenging and attractive in machine learning. There are many classic solutions, as well as many deep learning based methods, proposed to deal with it yielding encouraging performance. Stock time series forecasting…

Deep learning has enjoyed tremendous success in a variety of applications but its application to quantile regressions remains scarce. A major advantage of the deep learning approach is its flexibility to model complex data in a more…

When multiple agents learn in a decentralized manner, the environment appears non-stationary from the perspective of an individual agent due to the exploration and learning of the other agents. Recently proposed deep multi-agent…

Forecast combination involves using multiple forecasts to create a single, more accurate prediction. Recently, feature-based forecasting has been employed to either select the most appropriate forecasting models or to optimize the weights…

In this paper, a new method was developed for initialising artificial neural networks predicting dynamics of time series. Initial weighting coefficients were determined for neurons analogously to the case of a linear prediction filter.…

In this paper, we focus on distributed estimation and support recovery for high-dimensional linear quantile regression. Quantile regression is a popular alternative tool to the least squares regression for robustness against outliers and…

We propose a novel, succinct, and effective approach for distribution prediction to quantify uncertainty in machine learning. It incorporates adaptively flexible distribution prediction of $\mathbb{P}(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}=x)$ in regression…

Point forecasting of univariate time series is a challenging problem with extensive work having been conducted. However, nonparametric probabilistic forecasting of time series, such as in the form of quantiles or prediction intervals is an…

A key property of neural networks (both biological and artificial) is how they learn to represent and manipulate input information in order to solve a task. Different types of representations may be suited to different types of tasks,…

Human beings can leverage knowledge from relative tasks to improve learning on a primary task. Similarly, multi-task learning methods suggest using auxiliary tasks to enhance a neural network's performance on a specific primary task.…

Quantile regression is a powerful statistical methodology that complements the classical linear regression by examining how covariates influence the location, scale, and shape of the entire response distribution and offering a global view…

We consider the general problem of learning a predictor that satisfies multiple objectives of interest simultaneously, a broad framework that captures a range of specific learning goals including calibration, regret, and multiaccuracy. We…

Probabilistic forecasting is not only a way to add more information to a prediction of the future, but it also builds on weaknesses in point prediction. Sudden changes in a time series can still be captured by a cumulative distribution…

In this study, we develop a method for multi-task manifold learning. The method aims to improve the performance of manifold learning for multiple tasks, particularly when each task has a small number of samples. Furthermore, the method also…

We develop new algorithms for simultaneous learning of multiple tasks (e.g., image classification, depth estimation), and for adapting to unseen task/domain distributions within those high-level tasks (e.g., different environments). First,…