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Inference on unknown quantities in dynamical systems via observational data is essential for providing meaningful insight, furnishing accurate predictions, enabling robust control, and establishing appropriate designs for future…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-02-06 M. Chung , M. Binois , R. B. Gramacy , D. J. Moquin , A. P. Smith , A. M. Smith

Parameters of the mathematical model describing many practical dynamical systems are prone to vary due to aging or renewal, wear and tear, as well as changes in environmental or service conditions. These variabilities will adversely affect…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2022-07-13 Hang Geng , Mulugeta A. Haile , Huazhen Fang

Optimal state estimation for linear discrete-time systems is considered. Motivated by the literature on differential privacy, the measurements are assumed to be corrupted by Laplace noise. The optimal least mean square error estimate of the…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2016-09-02 Farhad Farokhi , Jezdimir Milosevic , Henrik Sandberg

This paper presents a fast algorithm for estimating hidden states of Bayesian state space models. The algorithm is a variation of amortized simulation-based inference algorithms, where a large number of artificial datasets are generated at…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-10-14 Ramis Khabibullin , Sergei Seleznev

State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2014-11-04 Roger Frigola , Yutian Chen , Carl E. Rasmussen

Currently several Bayesian approaches are available to estimate large sparse precision matrices, including Bayesian graphical Lasso (Wang, 2012), Bayesian structure learning (Banerjee and Ghosal, 2015), and graphical horseshoe (Li et al.,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-04-27 Ruoyang Zhang , Yisha Yao , Malay Ghosh

The Poisson distribution arises naturally when dealing with data involving counts, and it has found many applications in inverse problems and imaging. In this work, we develop an approximate Bayesian inference technique based on expectation…

数值分析 · 数学 2019-09-04 Chen Zhang , Simon Arridge , Bangti Jin

We develop an efficient sampling approach for handling complex missing data patterns and a large number of missing observations in conditionally Gaussian state space models. Two important examples are dynamic factor models with unbalanced…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-02-08 Joshua C. C. Chan , Aubrey Poon , Dan Zhu

We propose an efficient way to sample from a class of structured multivariate Gaussian distributions which routinely arise as conditional posteriors of model parameters that are assigned a conditionally Gaussian prior. The proposed…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-06-28 Anirban Bhattacharya , Antik Chakraborty , Bani K. Mallick

The problem of distributed estimation of a parametric physical field is stated as a maximum likelihood estimation problem. Sensor observations are distorted by additive white Gaussian noise. Prior to data transmission, each sensor quantizes…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2012-09-21 Natalia A. Schmid , Marwan Alkhweldi , Matthew C. Valenti

We consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a linear univariate autoregressive model with sub-Gaussian innovations from a limited sequence of consecutive observations. Assuming that the parameters are compressible, we analyze…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2017-04-05 Abbas Kazemipour , Sina Miran , Piya Pal , Behtash Babadi , Min Wu

Due to the skessed distribution, high peak and thick tail and asymmetry of financial return data, it is difficult to describe the traditional distribution. In recent years, generalized autoregressive score (GAS) has been used in many fields…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2020-10-14 Hong Shaopeng

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2015-02-06 Dave Higdon , Jordan D. McDonnell , Nicolas Schunck , Jason Sarich , Stefan M. Wild

We study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to linear inverse problems under discrete observations. We use the discrete Fourier transform to convert our model into a truncated Gaussian sequence model, that is closely related to the classical…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-10-31 Shota Gugushvili , Aad van der Vaart , Dong Yan

We propose the approximate Laplace approximation (ALA) to evaluate integrated likelihoods, a bottleneck in Bayesian model selection. The Laplace approximation (LA) is a popular tool that speeds up such computation and equips strong model…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-10-07 David Rossell , Oriol Abril , Anirban Bhattacharya

L1-norm regularized logistic regression models are widely used for analyzing data with binary response. In those analyses, fusing regression coefficients is useful for detecting groups of variables. This paper proposes a binomial logistic…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-12-15 Yuko Kakikawa , Shuichi Kawano

This study presents a novel approach to quantifying uncertainties in Bayesian model updating, which is effective in sparse or single observations. Conventional uncertainty quantification metrics such as the Euclidean and Bhattacharyya…

应用统计 · 统计学 2024-10-14 Sangwon Lee , Taro Yaoyama , Yuma Matsumoto , Takenori Hida , Tatsuya Itoi

This paper proposes a novel low-rank approximation to the multivariate State-Space Model. The Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) approach is applied component-wise to the independent-in-time Mat\'ern Gaussian innovation term in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-17 Jacopo Rodeschini , Lorenzo Tedesco , Francesco Finazzi , Philipp Otto , Alessandro Fassò

For civil structures, structural damage due to severe loading events such as earthquakes, or due to long-term environmental degradation, usually occurs in localized areas of a structure. A new sparse Bayesian probabilistic framework for…

应用统计 · 统计学 2015-07-02 Yong Huang , James L. Beck

We consider a Bayesian framework for estimating a high-dimensional sparse precision matrix, in which adaptive shrinkage and sparsity are induced by a mixture of Laplace priors. Besides discussing our formulation from the Bayesian…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-05-22 Lingrui Gan , Naveen N. Narisetty , Feng Liang