相关论文: Testing model specification in approximate Bayesia…

Optimal design of experiments for Bayesian inverse problems has recently gained wide popularity and attracted much attention, especially in the computational science and Bayesian inversion communities. An optimal design maximizes a…

Inference for mechanistic models is challenging because of nonlinear interactions between model parameters and a lack of identifiability. Here we focus on a specific class of mechanistic models, which we term stable differential equations.…

Mathematical models are invaluable for understanding and predicting how biological systems behave, although their construction requires specifying mechanisms and relationships that are often not perfectly known. In the presence of multiple…

A common goal throughout science and engineering is to solve optimization problems constrained by computational models. However, in many cases a high-fidelity numerical emulation of systems cannot be optimized due to code complexity and…

As the frontiers of applied statistics progress through increasingly complex experiments we must exploit increasingly sophisticated inferential models to analyze the observations we make. In order to avoid misleading or outright erroneous…

We propose a simple approach that provides accurate uncertainty quantification for Bayesian inference in misspecified or approximate models, and for generalized (Gibbs) posteriors. While existing solutions in this context are based on…

In many instances, the application of approximate Bayesian methods is hampered by two practical features: 1) the requirement to project the data down to low-dimensional summary, including the choice of this projection, which ultimately…

A method for sequential inference of the fixed parameters of a dynamic latent Gaussian models is proposed and evaluated that is based on the iterated Laplace approximation. The method provides a useful trade-off between computational…

Parametric Bayesian modeling offers a powerful and flexible toolbox for machine learning. Yet the model, however detailed, may still be wrong, and this can make inferences untrustworthy. In this paper we introduce a new class of…

We empirically show that Bayesian inference can be inconsistent under misspecification in simple linear regression problems, both in a model averaging/selection and in a Bayesian ridge regression setting. We use the standard linear model,…

We tackle the problem of system identification, where we select inputs, observe the corresponding outputs from the true system, and optimize the parameters of our model to best fit the data. We propose a practical and computationally…

Gaussian processes are ubiquitous in machine learning, statistics, and applied mathematics. They provide a flexible modelling framework for approximating functions, whilst simultaneously quantifying uncertainty. However, this is only true…

In the context of computer models, calibration is the process of estimating unknown simulator parameters from observational data. Calibration is variously referred to as model fitting, parameter estimation/inference, an inverse problem, and…

Estimation and inference in dynamic discrete choice models often relies on approximation to lower the computational burden of dynamic programming. Unfortunately, the use of approximation can impart substantial bias in estimation and results…

Neural networks are popular state-of-the-art models for many different tasks.They are often trained via back-propagation to find a value of the weights that correctly predicts the observed data. Although back-propagation has shown good…

Bayesian estimation is a powerful theoretical paradigm for the operation of quantum sensors. However, the Bayesian method for statistical inference generally suffers from demanding calibration requirements that have so far restricted its…

This study aims to investigate the utilization of Bayesian techniques for the calibration of micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) accelerometers. These devices have garnered substantial interest in various practical applications and…

In this article, we propose a novel Bayesian multiple testing formulation for model and variable selection in inverse setups, judiciously embedding the idea of inverse reference distributions proposed by Bhattacharya (2013) in a mixture…

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

This study establishes the consistency of Bayesian adaptive testing methods under the Rasch model, addressing a gap in the literature on their large-sample guarantees. Although Bayesian approaches are recognized for their finite-sample…