相关论文: Learning Probabilities of Causation from Finite Po…

Bayes nets are extensively used in practice to efficiently represent joint probability distributions over a set of random variables and capture dependency relations. In a seminal paper, Chickering et al. (JMLR 2004) showed that given a…

The likelihood ratio is a crucial quantity for statistical inference in science that enables hypothesis testing, construction of confidence intervals, reweighting of distributions, and more. Many modern scientific applications, however,…

Deep neural networks trained in an end-to-end manner are proven to be efficient in a wide range of machine learning tasks. However, there is one drawback of end-to-end learning: The learned features and information are implicitly…

The need for consistent treatment of uncertainty has recently triggered increased interest in probabilistic deep learning methods. However, most current approaches have severe limitations when it comes to inference, since many of these…

We consider inference from non-random samples in data-rich settings where high-dimensional auxiliary information is available both in the sample and the target population, with survey inference being a special case. We propose a regularized…

Stochastic epidemic models on networks are inherently high-dimensional and the resulting exact models are intractable numerically even for modest network sizes. Mean-field models provide an alternative but can only capture average…

The Shannon entropy, and related quantities such as mutual information, can be used to quantify uncertainty and relevance. However, in practice, it can be difficult to compute these quantities for arbitrary probability distributions,…

We first describe a general class of optimization problems that describe many natural, economic, and statistical phenomena. After noting the existence of a conserved quantity in a transformed coordinate system, we outline several instances…

Understanding the behavior of learned classifiers is an important task, and various black-box explanations, logical reasoning approaches, and model-specific methods have been proposed. In this paper, we introduce probabilistic sufficient…

We provide a computational complexity lens to understand the power of machine learning models, particularly their ability to model complex systems. Machine learning models are often trained on data drawn from sampleable or more complex…

Learning the parameters of complex probabilistic-relational models from labeled training data is a standard technique in machine learning, which has been intensively studied in the subfield of Statistical Relational Learning (SRL), but---so…

We obtain an index of the complexity of a random sequence by allowing the role of the measure in classical probability theory to be played by a function we call the generating mechanism. Typically, this generating mechanism will be a finite…

In many scientific experiments, the data annotating cost constraints the pace for testing novel hypotheses. Yet, modern machine learning pipelines offer a promising solution, provided their predictions yield correct conclusions. We focus on…

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have performed admirably in classification tasks. However, the characterization of their classification uncertainties, required for certain applications, has been lacking. In this work, we investigate the issue…

We investigate a Poisson sampling design in the presence of unknown selection probabilities when applied to a population of unknown size for multiple sampling occasions. The fixed-population model is adopted and extended upon for inference.…

The Poisson process, especially the nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP), is an essentially important counting process with numerous real-world applications. Up to date, almost all works in the literature have been on the estimation of…

A fundamental problem in adversarial machine learning is to quantify how much training data is needed in the presence of evasion attacks. In this paper we address this issue within the framework of PAC learning, focusing on the class of…

We present a new inference method based on approximate Bayesian computation for estimating parameters governing an entire network based on link-traced samples of that network. To do this, we first take summary statistics from an observed…

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or…

The Covid-19 pandemic drastically emphasized the fragility of national and international supply networks (SNs),leading to significant supply shortages of essential goods for people, such as food and medical equipment. Severe disruptions…